NFL Picks: Week 6 Colts vs Jaguars

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October 10, 2023

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This Sunday sets the stage for an exciting NFL showdown between the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Fresh from their game against the Titans, the Colts secured a tight seven-point triumph, boosting their record to 3-2. On the other hand, the Jaguars, after tussling with the Bills in London, clinched a five-point victory, also marking their record at 3-2 for the season.

 

BUSR NFL Lines

Spread: Colts +4 (-110), Jaguars -4 (-110) 

Moneyline: Colts +164, Jaguars -204 

Total: O 46 (-110), U 46 (-110) 

 

NFL Team Indianapolis ColtsIndianapolis Colts

Earlier in the season, when the Colts squared off against the Jaguars, they suffered a 31-21 setback on their home turf. But they bounced back, marking victories against the Texans (31-20) and securing a nail-biting overtime win over the Ravens (22-19). However, their subsequent bout led to another overtime game, where they fell short against the Rams, with a score of 29-23.

In their most recent outing against the Titans, the Colts did well, finishing with a 23-16 win. While QB Gardner Minshew threw for 155 yards from 11-of-14 completions, the real star was Zack Moss, who rampaged through with 165 yards and a duo of touchdowns on 23 runs. Josh Downs also stood out, amassing 97 yards from six receptions. Historically, the Colts have an intriguing record at EverBank Stadium, with the underdogs prevailing in their last five visits. Additionally, their record against the spread there is far from stellar. In terms of stats, the Colts are tied at 3rd for forced fumbles in the NFL and find themselves in the 30th spot when it comes to 4th down conversions.

 

Jacksonville JaguarsJacksonville Jaguars

Switching focus to the Jaguars, their opener against the Colts showed their offense can be a force, especially with their 14-point blast in the fourth quarter. However, they then faced back-to-back disappointments against the Chiefs (17-9) and the Texans (37-17). They managed to rediscover their rhythm against Atlanta, marking a 23-7 victory at Wembley Stadium. 

During their subsequent London face-off against the Bills, Jacksonville laid down a strong statement with a 25-20 win, marked by Trevor Lawrence’s impressive 315-yard throw with two touchdowns. Travis Etienne, however, was the offense’s linchpin, notching up 136 yards and a pair of touchdowns over 26 carries. Adding to this, Calvin Ridley contributed a significant 122 yards from seven receptions. 

Historical data at EverBank Stadium indicates a trend where underdogs have triumphed in the last five matchups between these two teams. Furthermore, the Jaguars have consistently covered the spread when facing teams with winning records. Stat-wise, the Jaguars are tied first for fumble recoveries and are ranked third in holding their opponents to the lowest first-quarter points.

 

Prediction

I’m leaning towards the Jaguars. Their recent performances, particularly in London against a formidable Bills unit, were encouraging. Despite a few hiccups in the form of penalties and turnovers, the Jaguars exhibited dominance in various facets of the game. 

On the flip side, while the Colts did showcase a consistent offensive streak in their recent outing, they’ve often struggled to surpass 23 points in most of their games this season. Even so, with their commendable road record, they’re bound to put up a fight and the fact that Minshew can step up if Richardson is out really makes this a hard game to predict. Ultimately, I’ll take the Jaguars to cover the -4 spread with the O 46 in points on BUSR NFL Odds.