Nevada Polls for Trump and Biden

Real Time Polls - Powered by Qualtrics

Election Odds

FINAL NEVADA POLL FINDS BIDEN WIDENING LEAD OVER TRUMP IN THE SILVER STATE


Las Vegas
-The final BUSR/UNLV Lee Business School poll of Nevada likely voters finds former Vice President Joe Biden expanding his advantage over President Donald Trump to nine points. This poll finds Biden favored by 50 percent of Nevada likely voters and Trump favored by 41 percent of Nevada likely voters. Biden led Trump by five points in both of our previous polls from September and August. This lead is Biden’s first lead outside the margin-of-error in all three of our polls.

Two percent of Nevada likely voters say they will vote for the Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgenson, one percent indicated they would vote for the Independent American Party nominee Don Blankenship, and two percent indicated they would select the option for “none of these candidates.” Four percent of Nevada likely voters are undecided without any lean as to their presidential preference.

Part of the poll was in the field the day after the final debate between Trump and Biden on October 22nd.

The following data incorporates the preferences of likely voters who indicated a lean towards a candidate. Total column percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Presidential Race

42 percent of Nevada likely voters strongly or somewhat approve of the way Trump is handling his job while 52 percent strongly approve or disapprove. 47 percent of Nevada likely voters have a strongly or somewhat favorable opinion of Biden while 41 percent have a strongly or somewhat unfavorable opinion.

Biden continues to receive more party loyalty from likely voters who identify as Democrats than Trump receives from likely voters who identify as Republicans. 11% of likely voters who identify as Republicans support Biden while 6% of likely voters who identify as Democrats support Trump. Biden leads Trump by a 43-37 margin among likely voters who identify as independent or nonpartisan.

Political Affiliation Republican Democrat Independent or Nonpartisan Other
Trump 85% 6% 37% 18%
Biden 11% 91% 43% 31%
Jorgenson* 0% 1% 6% 0%
Blankenship** 1% 0% 2% 0%
None of these candidates 2% 0% 3% 20%
Undecided 2% 2% 9% 32%
*Libertarian Party
**Independent American Party

The gender gap among likely Nevada voters has grown since our September poll. 51 percent of men support Trump while 40 percent of men support Biden. 60 percent of women support Biden while 32 percent of women support Trump.

Gender Male Female Other
Trump 51% 32% 0%
Biden 40% 60% 100%
Jorgenson* 3% 2% 0%
Blankenship** 2% 1% 0%
None of these candidates 1% 2% 0%
Undecided 4% 4% 0%

Since our last poll, Biden has cut into Trump’s advantage among white voters while Trump has made gains among minorities. Trump leads Biden by a 49-44 margin among white voters and a 45-43 among Asian voters. Biden leads Trump by a 58-29 margin among Hispanic voters and a 78-14 margin among Black voters.

Race White Hispanic Black Asian Other
Trump 49% 29% 14% 45% 16%
Biden 44% 58% 78% 43% 66%
Jorgenson* 2% 1% 1% 9% 4%
Blankenship** 1% 3% 2% 0% 0%
None of these candidates 2% 3% 0% 4% 0%
Undecided 3% 7% 6% 0% 14%

Biden maintains an overwhelming lead over Trump among younger voters. Trump’s strongest age group remains likely Nevada voters in the 50-64 age range. Trump and Biden are effectively even among seniors.

Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+
Trump 23 41 35 52 48
Biden 64 46 53 42 49
Jorgenson* 7 3 1 1 0
Blankenship** 1 1 2 0 1
None of these candidates 3 2 2 1 1
Undecided 2 6 7 4 2

Biden leads Trump by a 53-39 margin in Clark County and a 49-41 margin in Washoe County. Likely voters who do not reside in either Clark or Washoe counties give 53 percent support to Trump and 37 percent to Biden.

County Clark Washoe Other
Trump 39% 41% 53%
Biden 53% 49% 37%
Jorgenson* 2% 4% 3%
Blankenship** 1% 2% 0%
None of these candidates 2% 1% 0%
Undecided 3% 5% 8%

51 percent of Nevada likely voters believe that Biden would do a better job dealing with the coronavirus while 37 percent believe that Trump would do a better job. 49 percent of likely Nevada voters believe that Biden would do a better job dealing with foreign policy while 40 percent believe that Trump would do a better job. 47 percent of Nevada likely voters believe that Trump would do a better job handling the economy while 44 percent believe that Biden would do a better job.

Issue Coronavirus Economy Foreign Policy
Trump 37% 47% 40%
Biden 50% 44% 49%
Neither 13% 10% 11%

Final Presidential Debate and Vice Presidential Candidates

Around 11 percent of the poll was conducted on the day after the final presidential debate on October 22nd. Nevada likely voters surveyed following the debate favored by Biden by a 54-39 margin.

38 percent of Nevada likely voters have a strongly or somewhat favorable opinion of Vice President Mike Pence while 42 percent have a strongly or somewhat unfavorable opinion. 45 percent of Nevada likely voters have a strongly or somewhat favorable opinion of Senator Kamala Harris while 38 percent have a strongly or somewhat unfavorable opinion.

Supreme Court Nominee

37 percent of Nevada likely voters have a strongly or somewhat favorable opinion of Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett. 28 percent have a strongly or somewhat unfavorable opinion while 35 percent have no opinion.

Other Findings

39 percent of Nevada likely voters indicate that they are better off today than they were four years ago while 34 percent indicate that they are worse off today than they were four years ago. Trump leads Biden by a 71-22 margin among those who are better off today but Biden leads Trump by a 68-22 margin among all other Nevada likely voters.

Patricia Ackerman leads Congressman Mark Amodei by a 42-40 margin among just Washoe County likely voters in the race for the House seat for Nevada’s Second Congressional District.

The Las Vegas Golden Knights are more popular among Nevada likely voters than the Las Vegas Raiders. 59 percent of Nevada likely voters have a favorable rating of the Golden Knights while only seven percent have an unfavorable opinion. 45 percent of Nevada likely voters have a favorable opinion of the Raiders while 17 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

BUSR paid for this poll of 802 self-identified Nevada likely voters. Qualtrics collected the data for this survey from October 16, 2020 to October 21, 2020 and on October 23, 2020. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4 percentage points.

Methodology Statement

Crosstabs

Any additional questions about the poll, including requests for the raw data, should be sent to Alexander Chan (MBA Candidate ’22, UNLV Lee Business School) at chana22@unlv.nevada.edu or Dr. Anjala Krishen (Director of the MBA program at the UNLV Lee Business School) at anjala.krishen@unlv.edu.

This poll is connected to an independent study that is being conducted at the MBA program for the Lee Business School at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. The UNLV Institutional Review Board has approved this poll. UNLV’s MBA program is recognized for its inventive curriculum as well as voted the most diverse campus in the nation by the U.S. News World Report.

BUSR is an award-winning, international gaming company with offices in the United Kingdom and the Americas.

BUSR provides non-parimutuel wagering on horse racing for over 300 thoroughbred and harness racetracks around the world including Hong Kong, Japan, Australia and the United Kingdom.

Additionally, members of BUSR are able to wager on entertainment and politics as well as sports from around the world. A live dealer casino is available as well as over 350 table games and slot machines. BUSR has lines available for the presidential contest in all fifty states.

In 2020, BUSR achieved a 96% Gold Medal performance by Zendesk and was a proud sponsor of Roc Nation Sport’s Tramaine Williams in his middleweight fight against Angelo Leo on Showtime Championship Boxing. BUSR also provides odds and color commentary to various publications including ESPN, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, Yahoo Sports and the New York Times.


POLLING RESULTS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN NEVADA IN REAL TIME


Las Vegas
-For our final poll of the presidential race among Nevada likely voters, BUSR will be providing the results in real time for a week from October 16th to October 23rd. This page will be updated with the results in real time as quickly as possible after each response to our poll. We hope that this interactive exercise will provide you with a look behind the curtain as to how we have conducted our polling this election cycle.

The full results of our final Nevada poll will be released on October 30th on busr.com/polls. The real time poll results are unweighted.

Former Vice President Biden (-400 in Nevada) led President Trump (+250 in Nevada) by five points in both of our two previous Nevada polls from late September and late August. Like our two previous polls, Qualtrics will be collecting the data for our final survey of Nevada likely voters. The two previous polls can also be viewed at busr.com/polls.

Our real time poll results show the voting preference of Nevada likely voters, without leaners, as well as the demographic profile of the individual respondent (e.g, age, race, gender, county of residence, political affiliation, and education). The full results of our entire poll will be revealed on October 30th.

Any additional questions about the real time polling and the final poll release should be sent to Alexander Chan (MBA Candidate ’22, UNLV Lee Business School) at chana22@unlv.nevada.edu.

POLLING RESULTS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN NEVADA IN REAL TIME

Political AffiliationRepublicanDemocratIndependent or NonpartisanOtherTotal
Donald Trump22517703315
Joe Biden29273915398
Jo Jorgenson*1312016
Don Blankenship**21306
None of the candidates0000
Undecided111030758
Total27030421018802
========================================
County of residenceClarkWashoeOtherTotal
Donald Trump2314935315
Joe Biden3125927398
Jo Jorgenson*104216
Don Blankenship**4206
None of the candidates000
Undecided4112558
Total60612769802
========================================
Age18-2930-3940-4950-6465+Total
Donald Trump3768559857315
Joe Biden9476758370398
Jo Jorgenson*9412016
Don Blankenship**122016
None of the candidates00000
Undecided12161310758
Total158167148193136802
========================================
RaceWhiteHispanicBlackAsianOtherTotal
Donald Trump268196175315
Joe Biden25743612116398
Jo Jorgenson*9114116
Don Blankenship**321006
None of the candidates00000
Undecided37791458
Total58272784426802
========================================
GenderMaleFemaleOtherTotal
Donald Trump1751400315
Joe Biden1412561398
Jo Jorgenson*115016
Don Blankenship**4206
None of the candidates000
Undecided2236058
Total3574441802
========================================
EducationCollege graduateNon-college graduateTotal
Donald Trump179136315
Joe Biden195203398
Jo Jorgenson*61016
Don Blankenship**426
None of the candidates00
Undecided253358
Total411391802
*Libertarian Party
**Independent American Party

 



Sept 28, 2020

NEW NEVADA POLL FINDS BIDEN MAINTAINING LEAD OVER TRUMP IN THE SILVER STATE

Who will lead the U.S. Presidential election in Nevada?

BUSR Las Vegas Presidential Poll (Sept 28th 2020)

Las Vegas-The second BUSR poll of Nevada likely voters finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a five-point lead over President Donald Trump. This poll finds Biden favored by 46 percent of Nevada likely voters and Trump favored by 41 percent of Nevada likely voters. Biden led Trump 44-39 in our poll conducted in late August.  

Four percent of Nevada likely voters say they will vote for another candidate and three percent indicated they would select the option for none of the candidates. Six percent of Nevada likely voters are undecided without any lean as to their presidential preference.

This poll was in the field during Trump’s visit to Nevada the weekend of September 12th-13th and vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ visit to Nevada on September 15th.

The following data incorporates the preferences of likely voters who indicated a lean towards a candidate. Total column percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Presidential Race

41 percent of Nevada likely voters approve of the way Trump is handling his job while 50 percent disapprove. 42 percent of Nevada likely voters have a favorable opinion of Biden while 41 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

While the presidential contenders receive strong support from likely voters who identify with their respective political parties, Biden receives more party loyalty from likely voters who identify as Democrats than Trump receives from likely voters who identify as Republicans. 13% of likely voters who identify as Republicans support Biden while 5% of likely voters who identify as Democrats support Trump. Biden narrowly leads Trump by a 37-36 margin among likely voters who identify as independent or nonpartisan.

A large gender gap persists among likely Nevada voters. 45 percent of men support Trump while 41 percent of men support Biden. 49 percent of women support Biden while 38 percent of women support Trump.

Since our last poll, Trump has built a significant advantage among white voters while Biden has established a dominant lead among Hispanics. Trump leads Biden by a 52-38 margin among white voters while Biden leads Trump by a 60-22 margin among Hispanic voters. Biden leads Trump by a 68-11 margin among Black voters, a 55-26 margin among Asian voters, and a 43-36 margin among voters of other races.

Among white likely voters, Trump draws his strongest support from whites who are not college graduates. Trump leads Biden by a 54-35 margin with this group of voters. Among white likely voters who are college graduates, Trump leads Biden by a 48-42 margin.

This poll found that support for the candidates based on age fell along the traditional faultlines. Biden led Trump by a 55-20 among likely voters between the ages of 18-29 while Trump led Biden by a 49-41 margin among likely voters between the ages of 50-64 and a 52-45 margin among likely voters 65 and over.

Clark County likely voters gave 49 percent support to Biden and 37 percent support to Trump. Washoe County likely voters gave 46 percent support to Trump and 43 percent support to Biden. Likely voters who did not reside in either Clark or Washoe counties gave 57 percent support to Trump and 29 percent to Biden.

88 percent of Nevada likely voters who voted for Trump in the 2016 election support his re-election while nine percent now back Biden. Four percent of Nevada likely voters who voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election support Trump while 86 percent back Biden. 16 percent of Nevada likely voters who voted for someone other than Trump or Hillary Clinton in 2016 support Trump while 38 percent back Biden. 46 percent of Nevada likely voters who chose the “none of the candidates” option in 2016 support Trump while 12 percent back Biden. 27 percent of Nevada likely voters who did not vote at all in 2016 support Trump while 51 percent back Biden.

Undecideds

Most of the remaining undecided voters who did not indicate any lean towards a candidate have not formed an opinion of either Trump or Biden. 18% of these undecideds approve of Trump’s job performance, 27% disapprove of Trump’s job performance, and 55% do not know whether they approve or disapprove of Trump’s job performance. 3% of these undecided voters have a favorable opinion of Biden, 17% have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and 80% do not know whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Biden.

51% of the undecideds are white, 20% are Hispanic, 13% are Black, 8% are Asian, and 9% are voters of other races. 7% of the undecideds identify as Republicans, 18% identify as Democrats, 58% identify as independent or nonpartisan, and 16% identify as other. 12% of the undecideds voted for Trump in 2016, 22% voted for Clinton in 2016, 3% voted for someone else in 2016, 16% chose the option for none of the candidates in 2016, and 47% did not vote in 2016.

Method of Voting

59% of Nevada likely voters intend on voting in person while 30% intend on voting by mail. 12% do not know how they will vote.

67% of likely voters who intend on voting by mail support Biden while 21% support Trump. 54% of likely voters who intend on voting in person support Trump while 33% support Biden. 25% of likely voters who do not know how they will vote support Trump while 54% support Biden.

Other Findings

45% of Nevada likely voters approve of Steve Sisolak’s performance as Governor, 38% disapprove, and 17% do not know whether they approve or disapprove of his performance. 33% of Nevada likely voters approve of Catherine Cortez Masto’s performance as Senator, 33% disapprove, and 34% do not know whether they approve or disapprove of her performance. Both Sisolak and Cortez Masto are up for re-election in 2022.

42% of Nevada likely voters have visited a casino in the last three months while 58% have not visited a casino in the last three months. 42% of Nevada likely voters have a tattoo or body piercing while 58% of Nevada likely voters do not have a tattoo or body piercing.

BUSR sponsored this poll of 641 self-identified Nevada likely voters. Qualtrics collected the data for this survey from September 10 to September 25, 2020. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4 percentage points.

BUSR intends to sponsor one final poll surveying the presidential preferences of Nevada likely voters. This poll will be released in November right before the election.

This poll is related to an independent study that is being conducted at the MBA program for the Lee Business School at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. UNLV’s MBA program is recognized for its inventive curriculum as well as voted the most diverse campus in the nation by the U.S. News World Report.

BUSR is an award-winning, international gaming company with offices in the United Kingdom and the Americas.

BUSR provides non-parimutuel wagering on horse racing for over 300 thoroughbred and harness racetracks around the world including Hong Kong, Japan, Australia and the United Kingdom.

Additionally, members of BUSR are able to wager on entertainment and politics as well as sports from around the world. A live dealer casino is available as well as over 350 table games and slot machines. BUSR has lines available for the presidential contest in all fifty states.

In 2020, BUSR achieved a 96% Gold Medal performance by Zendesk and was a proud sponsor of Roc Nation Sport’s Tramaine Williams in his middleweight fight against Angelo Leo on Showtime Championship Boxing. BUSR also provides odds and color commentary to various publications including ESPN, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, Yahoo Sports and the New York Times.

Methodology Statement

Crosstabs

Any additional questions about the poll, including requests for the raw data, should be sent to Alexander Chan (MBA Candidate ’22, UNLV Lee Business School) at chana22@unlv.nevada.edu.



Previous Poll published September 1, 2020

U.S. Presidential Election Poll – Nevada Sept 1, 2020

BUSR Las Vegas Presidential Poll (Sept 1st 2020)

Las Vegas-The first nonpartisan poll of Nevada likely voters this calendar year finds former Vice President Joe Biden favored by 44 percent and President Donald Trump by 39 percent. Five percent of Nevada likely voters say they will vote for another candidate while 12 percent of Nevada likely voters are undecided as to their presidential preference.

41 percent of Nevada likely voters approve of the way Trump is handling his job while 51 percent disapprove. Eight percent of likely voters are not sure about how they felt about Trump’s job performance.

Support for the two presidential contenders is unsurprisingly divided pursuant to political affiliation. 85 percent of Democrats support Biden while 84 percent of Republicans support Trump. Among likely voters who identified their political affiliation as independent or other, 33% choose Biden while 31% support Trump.

A significant gender gap exists among likely Nevada voters. 38 percent of men support Biden while 46 percent of men support Trump. 49 percent of women support Biden while 32 percent of women support Trump.

This poll also found wide differences in support for the candidates based on age and race. 41 percent of white likely voters support Biden while 46 percent support Trump. 42 percent of likely Hispanic voters support Biden while 29 percent support Trump. 69 percent of African-American likely voters support while eight percent support Trump.

The presidential preferences among Nevada likely voters by education were peculiar. This poll found Trump leading Biden by a wide margin among respondents who indicated that “post-graduate” was the highest level of education that they completed. This result contradicts data from nearly every other state and national poll of the presidential contest, which suggests that some respondents were less than forthcoming in this survey about their level of collegiate education.

Clark County likely voters gave 47 percent support to Biden and 36 percent support to Trump. Washoe County likely voters gave 40 percent support to Biden and 40 percent support to Trump. Likely voters who did not reside in either Clark or Washoe counties gave 32 percent support to Biden and 51 percent to Trump.

88 percent of likely voters who approve of the way Trump is handling his job back him for re-election. 81 percent of likely voters who disapprove of Trump’s job performance back Biden.

The poll also found that 77 percent of Nevada likely voters support a requirement that masks or face coverings be worn in public places. 39 percent of Nevada likely voters support the reopening of schools for in-person instruction. 54 percent of Nevada likely voters who support a mask requirement support Biden while 29 percent support President Trump. 67 percent of Nevada likely voters who support the reopening of schools for in-person instruction support President Trump while 17 percent back Biden.

38 percent of Nevada likely voters believe that the federal government should provide financial relief to casinos. 21 percent of Nevada likely voters have flown on an airplane in the last six months.

29 percent of Nevada likely voters have placed a bet on a sporting event in the last year. 46 percent of such sports bettors back President Trump while 40 percent back Biden. 36 percent of Nevada likely voters who have not placed a wager on a sporting event back President Trump while 46 percent back Biden.

BUSR sponsored this poll of 682 self-identified Nevada likely voters. Qualtrics collected the data for this survey from August 20, 2020 to August 30, 2020. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4 percentage points.

A second poll will be released in the first week of October and the final poll will be released in November right before the election.

This poll is related to an independent study that is being conducted at the MBA program for the Lee Business School at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. UNLV’s MBA program is recognized for its inventive curriculum as well as voted the most diverse campus in the nation by the U.S. News World Report.

BUSR is an award-winning, international gaming company with offices in the United Kingdom and the Americas.

BUSR provides non-parimutuel wagering on horse racing for over 300 thoroughbred and harness racetracks around the world including Hong Kong, Japan, Australia and the United Kingdom.

Additionally, members of BUSR are able to wager on entertainment and politics as well as sports from around the world. A live dealer casino is available as well as over 350 table games and slot machines. BUSR has odds available for the presidential contest in all fifty states.

In 2020, BUSR achieved a 96% Gold Medal performance by Zendesk and was a proud sponsor of Roc Nation Sport’s Tramaine Williams in his middleweight fight against Angelo Leo on Showtime Championship Boxing. BUSR also provides odds and color commentary to various publications including ESPN, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, Yahoo Sports and the New York Times.

Methodology Statement

Crosstabs

Any additional questions about the poll, including requests for the raw data, should be sent to Alexander Chan (MBA Candidate ’22, UNLV Lee Business School) at chana22@unlv.nevada.edu.