North Carolina Primary Poll

Lara Trump leads 2022 NC Republican Senate Primary

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LARA TRUMP LEADS THE 2022 NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN SENATE PRIMARY; PRESIDENT TRUMP IS THE OVERWHELMING FAVORITE AMONG NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICANS IN 2024

Las Vegas – (December 7, 2020) -The BUSR/UNLV Lee Business School poll of North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents finds Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of President Donald Trump, leading the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary. Trump is reportedly considering a run for the Senate seat that is currently held by Senator Richard Burr. Trump leads former Governor Pat McCrory by a 24-23 margin. 39% of North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are undecided.

President Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite among North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents if he decides to run for President again in 2024. Trump is the preference of 76% of North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Trump holds an approval/disapproval rating of 89/8 among North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents

If President Trump opts against a run in 2024, Vice President Mike Pence would start as the strong favorite among North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Pence is favored by 48% of North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents if Trump does not run in 2024.

75% of North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believe that widespread voter fraud occurred in the 2020 election.

This poll of 221 self-identified North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted on November 30, 2020 and from December 1-December 2, 2020. Qualtrics collected the data for this survey. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 7 percentage points. BUSR paid for the costs of this poll.

Total column percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. This survey was weighted by age, gender, education, and 2020 vote choice.

2022 North Carolina Republican Senate Primary

Lara Trump would begin as one of the frontrunners in the 2022 Republican primary for Senator of North Carolina if she decides to run for Senator Burr’s seat. The candidates tested for this poll were Lara Trump, former Governor Pat McCrory, Congressman Mark Walker from North Carolina’s Sixth Congressional District, Congressman George Holding from North Carolina’s Second Congressional District, and North Carolina State Representative Tim Moore.

Candidate  
Lara Trump 24%
Pat McCrory 23%
Mark Walker 7%
Someone else 3%
George Holding 3%
Tim Moore 2%
Undecided 39%

2024 North Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

If President Trump’s legal challenges fail and he decides to run for President again in 2024, he would start with a dominant lead among North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The candidates tested for this poll were President Trump, former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Utah Senator and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Candidate  
Donald Trump 76%
Nikki Haley 6%
Someone else 5%
Ted Cruz 3%
Mitt Romney 3%
Marco Rubio 2%
Undecided 6%

If President Trump does not run, Vice President Mike Pence would be the early favorite among North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

Candidate  
Mike Pence 48%
Mitt Romney 9%
Ted Cruz 9%
Nikki Haley 9%
Someone else 4%
Marco Rubio 3%
Undecided 18%
 

Voter Fraud and Other Findings

75% of North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believe that widespread voter fraud occurred in the 2020 general election for the presidency. 16% do not believe that widespread voter fraud occurred while eight percent are undecided.

If the Food and Drug Administration approved a vaccine to prevent COVID-19, 34% of North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would get the vaccine while 38% would not. 27% are undecided.

57% of North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents support the state’s mask wearing requirements while 31% oppose the requirements. 12% are undecided.

A 42% plurality of North Carolina Republicans and Republican-leaning independents cited the Carolina Panthers as their favorite professional sports franchise. Only 7% cited the Charlotte Hornets as their favorite professional sports franchise.

Crosstabs

Methodology Statement

Any additional questions about the poll, including requests for the raw data, should be sent to Alexander Chan (MBA Candidate ’22, UNLV Lee Business School) at chana22@unlv.nevada.edu. The raw data for the poll is available upon request.

The UNLV Institutional Review Board has approved this poll. UNLV’s MBA program is recognized for its inventive curriculum as well as voted the most diverse campus in the nation by the U.S. News World Report.

BUSR is an award-winning, international gaming company with offices in the United Kingdom and the Americas.

BUSR provides non-parimutuel wagering on horse racing for over 300 thoroughbred and harness racetracks around the world including Hong Kong, Japan, Australia and the United Kingdom.

Additionally, members of BUSR are able to wager on entertainment and politics as well as sports from around the world. A live dealer casino is available as well as over 350 table games and slot machines. BUSR has lines available for the presidential contest in all fifty states.

In 2020, BUSR achieved a 96% Gold Medal performance by Zendesk and was a proud sponsor of Roc Nation Sport’s Tramaine Williams in his middleweight fight against Angelo Leo on Showtime Championship Boxing.

Updated January 20, 2021.

2024 US Presidential Election
Fractional American
Alexandria Ocasio-cortez3/1+300
Joe BidenEVEV
Kamala Harris 7/2+350
Elizabeth Warren8/1+800
Bernie Sanders10/1+1000
Michelle Obama10/1+1000
Andrew Cuomo12/1+1200
Ted Cruz12/1+1200
Josh Hawley12/1+1200
Tom Cotton15/1+1500
Pete Buttigieg15/1+1500
Michael Bennet20/1+2000
Cory Booker20/1+2000
Ivanka Trump20/1+2000
Mike Bloomberg30/1+3000
Kanye West50/1+5000
Mark Cuban50/1+5000
Elon Musk75/1+7500