NFL Picks: Week 5 Jaguars vs Bills

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In week 5 of NFL action, the Jacksonville Jaguars  are set to face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Here´s a preview of this divisional matchup along with a pick and prediction. 

BUSR NFL Lines

SPREAD:  Jaguars +5.5 (-110), Bills -5.5 (-110)

MONEYLINE: Jaguars +189, Bills -238

TOTAL:  Jaguars O 48 (-110), Bills U48 (-110) 

Jaguars Roar

Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a convincing 23-7 victory over the Atlanta Falcons in London during Week 4, and they managed to cover the spread as 3.5-point favorites. The rookie quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, had a solid performance, completing 23 of 30 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown. His favorite target in that game was wide receiver Christian Kirk, who made 8 receptions out of 12 targets for a total of 84 yards. While WR Calvin Ridley scored a touchdown for the Jaguars, he had just 2 receptions for 38 yards. Notably, the Jaguars might hold a unique advantage this week as they have already been in London for a week, potentially helping them with the time zone adjustment.

Bills Ride Strong

On the other side, the Buffalo Bills are riding high after their dominant 48-20 win over the Miami Dolphins last Sunday, covering the 3-point spread. Buffalo’s offense has been on fire, scoring at least 37 points in their last three games. Their star quarterback, Josh Allen, led the charge with an impressive 21 of 25 passing for 320 yards and four touchdowns, in addition to a rushing touchdown. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs had a spectacular performance with 6 receptions for 120 yards and three touchdowns, contributing significantly to their offensive success.

When looking at the historical head-to-head matchups between the Jaguars and Bills, the last time these teams faced off in the NFL was in November 2021, resulting in a 9-6 victory for Jacksonville as substantial 14.5-point underdogs. Over the last seven matchups dating back to 2012, the Bills have a 4-3 record both straight up and against the spread. Furthermore, in those seven games, the over has hit in 5 of them, indicating a tendency towards higher-scoring contests.

Now, let’s delve into a predictive analysis of this upcoming matchup:

The Jaguars, despite their victory over the Falcons in London, face a formidable challenge in the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo’s offense has been explosive, consistently putting up big points. The combination of Josh Allen’s accurate passing and ability to score on the ground, along with the dynamic receiving skills of Stefon Diggs, makes the Bills a potent offensive force.

On the other side, while Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars showed promise in their recent win, they will need to step up significantly to compete with the Bills. The London advantage could help mitigate some of the challenges associated with long-distance travel, but it may not be enough to offset the difference in overall team performance.

Regarding the over/under, the 48-point line suggests that oddsmakers anticipate a relatively high-scoring game. Both teams have shown the ability to put up points, and the history of their head-to-head matchups, with the over hitting in five of the last seven games, further supports this expectation. So, if you’re looking for a wager on the total points scored, the over might be the more attractive option.