NFL Picks: Week 4 Dolphins vs Bills

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September 29, 2023

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In Week 4 of the NFL, the Miami Dolphins are set to take on the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Here’s a unique and concise preview of the game along with a pick and prediction.

 

BUSR NFL Lines

Spread: Dolphins +2.5 (-105), Bills -2.5 (-110) 

Moneyline: Dolphins +124, Bills -151

Total: O 53.5 (-110), U 53.5 (-110) 

nfl match dolphins vs billsDolphins Destroyed Broncos

The Miami Dolphins are off to an impressive start this season, with a 3-0 record, including a record setting 70-20 win against the Denver Broncos in their home opener. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has passed for 1,024 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, boasting a completion rate of 71.3%. Raheem Mostert has been stellar on the ground, accumulating 240 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns, while De’Von Achane has contributed 208 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Tyreek Hill leads the receiving corps with 25 receptions for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns.

The defense, led by Jevon Holland with 33 total tackles, has recorded 8 sacks and 2 interceptions. However, the Dolphins have faced difficulties at Highmark Stadium, losing their last nine Sunday games there, and have struggled to cover the spread in October games. 

 

Bills Trampled the Commanders

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a dominant victory against the Washington Commanders, winning 37-3 and improving their record to 2-1. Quarterback Josh Allen has been productive, passing for 728 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions with a completion rate of 72.7%. James Cook leads the rushing attack with 267 yards on the ground. Key receiving targets include Stefon Diggs with 25 receptions for 279 yards and Gabe Davis with 159 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.

On the defensive side, Terrel Bernard leads in tackles with 24 and has contributed 2 sacks and 2 interceptions. Matt Milano has two interceptions, and Leonard Floyd leads the team with 3.5 sacks. Historically, the Bills have been strong at home, winning their last seven home games against the Dolphins. However, they have struggled to cover the spread in October games against AFC East opponents.

 

Prediction

In this matchup, the underdog Dolphins are the pick. Despite their impressive offensive performance, the decision isn’t solely based on their high-scoring game against the Broncos. The Dolphins have displayed consistent strength throughout the first three weeks of the season. While the Bills have also been solid, the Dolphins have arguably performed better against tougher opponents.

Although Buffalo has historically been dominant at home against the Dolphins, this time, the Dolphins seem to offer value as they are getting a free field goal. Expect a closely contested game, and consider taking Miami to cover the reasonable +2.5 spread on BUSR NFL Odds. Both teams come from huge offensive performances yet their defenses have been solid, so this might not be the shootouts fans are expecting. Taking the under on 53.5 seems like a risky move, yet a very possible outcome.