NFL Picks: Preseason Week 3 Dolphins vs Jaguars

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The excitement around the NFL preseason is palpable as the Miami Dolphins, with a 1-1 record, are gearing up to seal their preseason with a win. Standing in their way are the Jacksonville Jaguars, boasting an impressive 2-0 run. As the night falls on Saturday, TIAA Bank Field is expected to be buzzing with anticipation, with the kickoff set for 7 PM ET.

BUSR NFL Lines:

• • Spread: Dolphins +6.5 (-110), Jaguars -6.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Dolphins +218, Jaguars -280
  • Total: Dolphins O 41.5 (-110), Jaguars U 41.5 (-110)

Dolphins Eyeing Back-to-Back Wins

Having dusted themselves off from a loss to Atlanta, the Dolphins notched up a victory against the Texans. As they prepare for their clash against the Jaguars, the aim is clear: harness the momentum to register their second consecutive win.

In the numbers game, Miami’s offense chalked up an average of 15.5 points across two matches. Their passing offense yielded 171 yards, while their ground game roared to life, amassing 186.5 yards each outing. Skylar Thompson has been the key figure in the passing department for the Dolphins, showcasing a commendable 66% completion rate, resulting in 261 yards, and three touchdowns, but tainted by two interceptions. On the rushing front, Salvon Ahmed took the reins with 99 yards off 12 carries, while in the receiving department, Braxton Berrios stood out with 44 yards from five catches, including a touchdown.

Miami’s defense has been their cornerstone, conceding a mere 11 points on average per game. Their last encounter saw them tighten the screws even further, giving up just three points. A replication of this performance will be instrumental if they harbor hopes of taming the Jaguars.

Jaguars Hungry for a Hat-trick of Wins

The preseason script couldn’t have been penned better for the Jaguars. Riding high on a two-game winning spree, they’re eyeing the Dolphins as their next potential conquest, hoping to add a third win to their tally.

Statistically speaking, Jacksonville has been a force offensively. Averaging a robust 26.5 points in the preseason, their air raid produced 261.5 yards, complemented by a ground game that clocked 145 yards per match. Nathan Rourke has been the lynchpin in the Jaguars’ passing assault, mirroring Skylar Thompson’s 66% completion rate, and accumulating 274 yards and a touchdown. On the rushing front, Tank Bigsby has made his presence felt with 122 yards off 22 carries, whereas Elijah Cooks has been the go-to receiver, racking up 111 yards with four receptions.

On the defensive side of things, Jacksonville has held its ground, allowing an average of 15.5 points each game. However, the 23 points they conceded in their last outing indicate areas to shore up if they aim for another win.

Recommendation

A closer look at the Jaguars’ journey reveals their dominant run in the two away games they’ve clinched. Their offense has been nothing short of spectacular, breaching the 25-point mark in both encounters. Rookie sensation, Nathan Rourke, seems to be edging out C.J. Beathard for the starting spot, especially given his recent form. Yet, with a ground game that has already accumulated 290 yards and four touchdowns in two games, Rourke’s role might be more about game management. Given the Dolphins’ shaky run defense, evident from their first preseason game, the Jaguars might lean heavily on their rushers.

As for the Dolphins, despite their victory against the Texans, where they tallied 28 points, concerns linger around their passing game. With backup quarterbacks helming most of the preseason, their air offense hasn’t truly taken off. However, they’ve found solace in their ground game, piling up over 360 yards in their two games. The challenge, however, is the Jaguars’ fortified run defense, which has stifled their previous two adversaries to under 130 rushing yards in total. Thus, Miami’s quarterbacks might find themselves in the unenviable position of breaching Jacksonville’s air defense.

Taking into account form, tactics, and performances, the scales seem to tip in the Jacksonville Jaguars’ favor. The Dolphins, despite their recent win, might find the going tough, especially with the Jaguars’ potent ground game and stringent run defense. For those keen on NFL Odds, it seems prudent to back Jacksonville to not only secure a victory but also cover the spread.