Thursday Night Football Odds: Week 5

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THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ODDS WEEK 5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons meet in Atlanta in an NFC South Division showdown with heavy NFL Futures implications. The Buccaneers come into the game with a 3-1 record after a dominant win over the Eagles, while the Falcons improved to 2-2 following a last-second victory over the New Orleans Saints, improving their thursday night football odds.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay has had a surprising start to the season, sitting at the top of the NFC South after a 33-16 win over Philadelphia. Baker Mayfield has been a key factor in the Buccaneers’ success. Against the Eagles, he completed 30-of-47 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns without throwing an interception. 

The Buccaneers jumped out to a 24-0 lead and never looked back, holding the Eagles to just 67 yards of total offense by halftime. Tampa Bay’s defense recorded six sacks, showing their ability to disrupt opposing offenses.

The Buccaneers’ offense ranks 16th in total yards, 21st in rushing, and 7th in passing. In the red zone, they rank 11th in converting opportunities into touchdowns. On defense, they are 19th in total yards allowed, 29th against the run, and 16th against the pass. 

Tampa Bay’s defense has performed well in the red zone, ranking 13th in red zone defense. The Buccaneers also play disciplined football, ranking fourth in fewest penalties per game and ninth in turnover margin.

Tampa Bay has notable injury concerns, with several key players, including wide receiver Mike Evans, defensive lineman William Gholston, and center Graham Barton, listed as doubtful or questionable.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons pulled off a thrilling 26-24 victory over division rival New Orleans last Sunday, thanks to a career-long 58-yard field goal by Youngho Koo with two seconds left. Despite not scoring an offensive touchdown, the Falcons found other ways to get on the board, including a pick-six by linebacker Troy Anderson and a muffed punt recovery for a touchdown by KhaDarel Hodge.

Atlanta’s offense ranks 20th in total yards, with the ground game performing well at 11th in the league, but they’ve struggled through the air, ranking 20th. New quarterback Kirk Cousins has shown flashes but hasn’t yet fully settled into the system. The Falcons have also been inefficient in the red zone, ranking 28th in turning red zone trips into touchdowns.

Defensively, Atlanta is 20th in total yards allowed but excels against the run, ranking ninth in the league. However, they have struggled against the pass, allowing the second-most passing yards per game. 

This could be a concern as they face a potent Tampa Bay passing attack led by Mayfield. The Falcons have been better in red zone defense, ranking 12th. They have also done well in avoiding penalties, ranking 12th in the fewest penalties per game and 13th in turnover margin.

The Falcons are dealing with injuries. Linebacker Troy Anderson is doubtful, and key players like wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud III and running back Bijan Robinson are questionable.

Prediction

Thursday’s matchup sees the Falcons as the more desperate team. They need to win at home to avoid a 1-3 home start. Atlanta’s ground game, led by Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, should exploit Tampa Bay’s 29th-ranked run defense. 

The Falcons will look to control the game by running the ball effectively and wearing down Tampa Bay’s defense. This will allow Kirk Cousins time to execute play-action passes and stretch the field.

Defensively, the Falcons are strong against the run, which could force the Buccaneers to rely on Mayfield’s arm. If Atlanta can pressure Mayfield and limit Tampa Bay’s big passing plays, they can secure a win. Desperation and home-field advantage should give the Falcons the edge in this NFC South battle.

Prediction: Falcons -1.5