Sunday Night Football Odds Week 11

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Sunday Night Football Odds Week 11

Week 11 heats up with major changes for Sunday Night Football Odds, as Joe Burrow’s Bengals face Justin Herbert’s Chargers in a must-win showdown. Key matchups include the Seahawks vs. 49ers, the Chiefs clashing with the Bills in a potential AFC preview, and the Texans dominating the injury-plagued Cowboys. 

With playoff races tightening and NFL futures markets shifting, this week’s games will define the path to the postseason.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

The Packers (6-3) come into this divisional matchup after a bye week, which allowed Jordan Love to recover from a lingering groin injury that hindered his mobility and effectiveness in Week 9. Green Bay’s offense, led by Love and running back Aaron Jones, is expected to exploit Chicago’s weak run defense. 

The Packers’ offensive line will also have its hands full with Chicago’s pass rush, but Love’s improved health should allow him to maneuver in the pocket and make plays downfield to his talented receiving corps.

The Bears (4-5) will rely on Caleb Williams, who struggled against the Patriots last week, taking nine sacks due to an offensive line riddled with injuries. If either Darnell Wright or Braxton Jones returns, Chicago’s protection could improve, giving Williams time to find D’Andre Swift in the running game. 

Green Bay’s defensive strength is its pass rush, which ranks first among non-blitzing teams in terms of pressure rate. This could spell trouble for Williams. However, the Bears’ ability to run the ball effectively might keep them competitive.  

Prediction: Bears +5.5 (-110)   

Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints  

The Saints (3-7) pulled off a surprising upset against Atlanta last week, but key injuries to receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed leave their offense in a precarious position.

Derek Carr will need to rely heavily on Alvin Kamara, but Cleveland’s run defense, anchored by Myles Garrett, is among the best in the league and limits production from pass-catching running backs. If Carr struggles under pressure from Garrett and Cleveland’s defensive front, it could lead to turnovers and stalled drives.

Conversely, the Browns (2-7) returned from a bye week, which provided extra preparation time to address their offensive struggles. Nick Chubb, who has had a slow start since his return from injury, faces a favorable matchup against New Orleans’ weak run defense. 

Additionally, Jameis Winston should have ample opportunities to target slot receivers and tight ends against the Saints’ depleted secondary. Cleveland has the edge with the Browns’ strong defense and the Saints’ offensive limitations.  

Prediction: Browns -1 (-110) 

Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots  

The Rams (4-5) look to bounce back from a sloppy performance on Monday night, where turnovers and penalties derailed their chances. Sean McVay’s team is typically well-coached, and adjustments are expected, especially against a Patriots team that ranks poorly in pass rush and run defense. 

Kyren Williams should have a big day on the ground, and Cooper Kupp is positioned for a breakout performance against a New England defense that struggles against slot receivers.

The Patriots (3-7) capitalized on the Bears’ offensive line woes last week but face a much tougher test in the Rams. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye will struggle against Los Angeles’ league-best pass rush as the Patriots’ offensive line continues to underperform. 

New England’s inability to establish a run game will leave Maye in unfavorable third-and-long situations, leading to potential turnovers. With the Rams motivated after their loss and the Patriots coming off a rare win, the edge goes to Los Angeles.  

Prediction: Rams -4.5 (-110) 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers  

The Ravens (7-3) boast the NFL’s top offense, but they’ve historically struggled against the Steelers, averaging just 16.6 points per game in their last five meetings. Pittsburgh’s defense, built to contain mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, features speedy edge rushers who limit outside runs. 

Adding Derrick Henry boosts Baltimore’s ground game, but the Steelers’ stout run defense presents a significant challenge.

The Steelers (7-2), led by a revitalized Russell Wilson, have an opportunity to exploit Baltimore’s struggling secondary. Wilson’s ability to connect on deep passes to George Pickens and Mike Williams will be essential, as will tight end Pat Freiermuth’s role against Baltimore’s soft middle coverage. 

Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog (61-34 ATS) and the Steelers’ dominance in the rivalry (seven wins in the last eight matchups) suggest Pittsburgh is well-positioned to pull off the upset.  

Prediction: Steelers +3 (-105) 

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins  

The Dolphins (3-6) are in a prime spot to rebound after facing two top-tier defenses in consecutive weeks. Tua Tagovailoa will benefit from facing the Raiders’ 29th-ranked defense, which struggles to defend tight ends and pass-catching backs. 

Expect De’Von Achane to thrive in this matchup and Jonnu Smith, who could have a big day against Las Vegas’ linebacking corps. Miami’s improving pass rush, boosted by the return of Zach Sieler, could make life difficult for the Raiders’ quarterback.

Gardner Minshew is expected to start for the Raiders (2-7), but their offense will struggle to find consistency against Miami’s improving defense. Injuries in the Dolphins’ secondary may open opportunities for a backdoor cover. Still, the Raiders’ inability to protect the quarterback and establish a running game puts them at a severe disadvantage. 

Miami’s offensive weapons should be too much for Las Vegas to handle.  

Prediction: Dolphins -7 (-110) 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions  

The Lions (8-1) overcame Jared Goff’s rough game last week. He threw five interceptions yet still led Detroit to victory. This week, Goff faces a much easier opponent in the Jaguars’ 28th-ranked defense, which lacks the pass rush to pressure him. 

Jahmyr Gibbs should also shine against a Jacksonville defense that struggles against pass-catching running backs. Detroit’s offense will likely have its way indoors.

The Jaguars (2-8) are expected to start Mac Jones, who faces an uphill battle against Detroit’s top-12 defense. Jacksonville’s run game, led by Travis Etienne, will struggle against Detroit’s solid defensive front, forcing Jones to operate in unfavorable situations. 

With the Lions’ defensive line bolstered by Za’Darius Smith’s debut, Jacksonville’s offensive struggles will likely continue.  

Prediction: Lions -13.5 (-110)  

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans  

The Vikings (7-2) want to clean up mistakes after a narrow win over Jacksonville. Sam Darnold’s red-zone turnovers cost Minnesota a comfortable victory, but he has an opportunity to redeem himself against Tennessee’s injury-plagued secondary. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison should thrive against a defense missing its top cornerbacks, while Aaron Jones can be crucial in the passing game.

The Titans (2-7) rely heavily on Will Levis, who has struggled mightily against blitz-heavy defenses. Minnesota’s Brian Flores leads the league in blitz rate, which will likely force Levis into turnovers and erratic play. Tennessee’s inability to run the ball effectively against Minnesota’s strong front makes this a tough matchup for the Titans to keep close.

Prediction: Vikings -6 (-110) 

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets  

The Jets (3-7) aim to recover from a humiliating six-point performance last week. Aaron Rodgers faces a much easier test against a Colts defense that doesn’t blitz, allowing him to find rhythm in the passing game. The Jets’ defense remains strong, and Indianapolis must lean on Jonathan Taylor to attack New York’s weak run defense.

The Colts (4-6) continue to cycle through quarterback issues, with Joe Flacco turning the ball over repeatedly last week. Anthony Richardson is now back under center, but his inexperience and poor decision-making limit the Colts’ potential. With Michael Pittman Jr. likely out, the Colts will struggle to generate big plays against a strong Jets secondary.  

Prediction: Jets -4 (-110) 

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers (5-4) will rely heavily on Christian McCaffrey, who should see an increased workload in his second game back from injury. McCaffrey bolsters San Francisco’s rushing attack against Seattle’s poor run defense. 

Brock Purdy, who excelled in the first meeting between these teams, will look to connect with Deebo Samuel, a player who has historically dominated the Seahawks. However, San Francisco’s red zone struggles remain a concern, and missed opportunities could keep this game closer than expected.

The Seahawks (4-5) struggled in their earlier matchup against the 49ers, producing much of their offensive output during garbage time. Kenneth Walker is unlikely to find much success against San Francisco’s elite run defense, though he could make an impact as a receiver out of the backfield. 

Tyler Lockett, rather than D.K. Metcalf, is better positioned to have a standout performance, given the 49ers’ tendency to shut down opposing top receivers. While Seattle is coming off a bye, their inconsistent defense and lack of offensive versatility present significant challenges.  

Prediction: 49ers -6.5 (-110) 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos (5-5) are coming off a tough blocked field goal loss and will look to rebound behind Bo Nix. Denver’s offense will exploit Atlanta’s inability to generate pressure, giving Nix time to target Courtland Sutton against a weak Falcons secondary. However, the Broncos’ ground game, now featuring Audric Estime, is unlikely to have much of an impact against Atlanta’s stout run defense.

The Falcons (6-4) will lean on Kyle Pitts, who has a favorable matchup against Denver’s vulnerable middle-field coverage. While Drake London is expected to be neutralized by Patrick Surtain II, Bijan Robinson could play a key role in breaking down Denver’s defense on the ground and as a receiver. 

Despite their offensive potential, Atlanta’s defensive struggles make them susceptible to big plays, which could lead to another close game.  

Prediction: Falcons -2 (-110) 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs (9-0) have leaned on Patrick Mahomes’ brilliance, but they face a tough challenge against Buffalo’s top-four defense. Travis Kelce, who has been in great form, will look to exploit Buffalo’s occasional lapses against tight ends, while Kansas City’s slot receivers may also find success. The Chiefs’ run game remains weak, forcing Mahomes to rely on his passing ability against a solid secondary.

The Bills (8-2) aim to capitalize on Kansas City’s struggles against tight ends with Dalton Kincaid, who should thrive in this matchup. While the Bills’ running game may be stifled, Josh Allen’s ability to scramble and extend plays could prove critical. The Bills have a roster built to counter the Chiefs. Still, their reliance on secondary weapons like Khalil Shakir and the potential absence of key players could hinder their offensive efficiency.  

Prediction: Bills -2 (-110) 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Joe Burrow and the Bengals (4-6) face a tough test against the Chargers’ second-ranked defense. While Burrow can rely on Chase Brown to establish the run and set up play-action opportunities, the Chargers’ elite pass rush and strong coverage could disrupt Cincinnati’s passing attack. Ja’Marr Chase, however, has a favorable matchup against Los Angeles’ secondary, which has recently struggled against No. 1 receivers.

The Chargers (6-3) have been dominant in recent outings and will look to exploit Cincinnati’s poor run defense with J.K. Dobbins. Well-protected by his offensive line, Justin Herbert will have ample time to target Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey against Cincinnati’s struggling secondary. The Chargers are in a strong position with their superior talent and coaching, but Burrow’s resilience could make this a closely contested game.  

Prediction: Bengals +2 (-110)