U.S. Mid Term
Election Odds

Las Vegas, NV – BUSR and Susquehanna Polling and Research are releasing the following poll results of the 2022 midterm races for United States Senate, Governor, and Attorney General in Nevada and the 2024 presidential election in Nevada.

Susquehanna Polling and Research is a firm profiled in two episodes of CBS’s Inside Edition for its accuracy in presidential battleground polling, and BUSR is an international gaming company and sportsbook whose odds have been distributed to ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Newsweek, and the New York Times.

BUSR has betting lines available for the 2022 midterm elections and is one of the few credible sportsbooks to have opened markets for gubernatorial elections in the 2022 midterm elections, including the Nevada gubernatorial election.

The poll was conducted Oct. 24 – Oct. 27, 2022, with a sample size of 500 likely voters conducted using live telephone agents; the poll’s margin of error is +/-4.3% at the 95% confidence level. Here are summaries of the poll results from James Lee, pollster for Susquehanna Polling and Research.

 

US SENATE: Laxalt well positioned to defeat Cortez Masto

If the election for United States Senate were being held today, would you vote for Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democrat candidate, Adam Laxalt, the Republican candidate, Barry Rubinson, the Independent American Party candidate, Neil Scott, the Libertarian Party candidate?

James Lee: GOP nominee Adam Laxalt leads US Senator Catherine Cortez Masto 48.1% to 42.5%, with 5% still undecided; three minor party candidates combined account for 4.4% of the vote but are unlikely to affect the outcome.

The “elephant in the room” in this race is Biden’s low popularity, and the election is shaping up as a referendum on Biden and pocketbook issues like inflation, gas prices and the economy – all of which are benefiting Laxalt. For instance, despite winning Nevada against Trump in 2020, Biden is under water on approval (a negative 56:41). 

This is important because voters who disapprove of Biden’s job performance prefer Laxalt by a 73:16 margin. Worse, among non-partisan Independents, which make up a disproportionately large share of the state’s electorate when compared with other states, Biden is upside down 61:30 (disapprove/approve), which is lethal when you consider that according to 2020 exit polls Biden won Nevada unaffiliated voters 50:44.

Two years later, Independents now lean Laxalt 53:31, which in addition to Laxalt’s strong numbers with Republicans (at 87%) is more than enough to win in a 5-person race where it’s not critical to hit fifty percent. Moreover, gas prices, inflation and the economy are cited by 57% as the issues most likely to influence voters’ choices in November, and these “inflation” voters lean Laxalt 56:34. 

Laxalt also leads Cortez Masto by a larger 50:41 margin among the subsample of 392n “excellent” voters. This suggests Laxalt voters have more enthusiasm.

For Cortez Masto to win, she will need to peel back Laxalt’s support with non-partisan Independents and try to make the race hinge on other issues important to voters, like abortion. Voters who care about abortion are voting 73:19 for Cortez Masto, with abortion being the only issue tested in the poll that Democrats have a statistical advantage on.

Plus, Cortez Masto is underperforming in Clark County, where she only narrowly leads Laxalt 47:44. Clark makes up 70% of the statewide vote, and she defeated challenger J. Heck in Clark County by a 51:40 margin 6 years ago. A tight race in Clark County means in all likelihood a defeat for Cortez Masto.
(¹CNN Exit poll).

 

GOVERNOR: Lombardo holds narrow lead over Sisolak, but support for the Libertarian could influence the outcome

If the election for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Steve Sisolak, the Democrat candidate, Joe Lombardo, the Republican candidate, Ed Bridges, the Independent American Party candidate, Brandon Davis, the Libertarian candidate?

James Lee: Former Sheriff Joe Lombardo narrowly leads Dem. Governor Steve Sisolak 44.6% to 43.4%, with 7.2% of the state’s voters undecided. Given the poll’s +/-4.3% margin of error, this race is technically a tossup.

Lombardo is underperforming with Republicans, winning them 81:4 over Sisolak but because Libertarian Party candidate Brandon Davis is the favorite of 4% of Republicans, this could inhibit Lombardo’s ability to further increase support in his base. In comparison, Sisolak is winning Democrats 91:3 over his GOP opponent.

Independents favor Lombardo 49:34, but like with Republicans, the two minor party candidates combined are attracting more than 5 percent of the vote, that presumably, should go to the challenger. Undecided Independent and Republicans will be the key to this race, since combined they represent 83% of all undecided voters.

The top two issues among these undecided voters are the economy and inflation (69%), and immigration (38%). Plus, they disapprove of Biden 67:33, and in the US Senate race they are breaking for Laxalt 64:23. These factors strongly suggest Lombardo has more room to grow. 

Other factors that could influence the race include the perception voters have of which candidate is more trusted on crime and public safety, and how the candidates do in Clark County and getting their vote out.

For instance, beyond inflation and the economy, crime is rated the #2 most important issue that will influence voters (at 35%). Yet voters who care about crime are leaning towards Sisolak (47:44), despite Lombardo’s credentials as a former sheriff. This could be significant since national polls show that voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on the issue of public safety and cracking down on crime. In Clark County, Sisolak holds a narrow 47:43 lead over Lombardo, which shows he’s underperforming when you consider that he carried Clark County with 54% of the vote 4 years ago in his first run for governor.

This time around, “excellent” voters suggest GOP enthusiasm is higher, since Lombardo widens his lead among this sub sample [392n] of the poll’s voters to a 46:41 margin.

 

 

ATTORNEY GENERAL: Ford leads Chattah, but this race is too close to call

If the election for Attorney General were being held today, would you vote for Aaron Ford, the Democrat candidate, Sigal Chattah, the Republican candidate, John Kennedy, the Libertarian candidate?

James Lee: The history of AG races in Nevada for the last decade shows very close contests, and the current race seems to show a similar trajectory.

Ford currently leads his GOP opponent 44.4% to 40.8%, with the Libertarian candidate pulling 9.3%; 4.3% are undecided and a combined 1.2% either refused to name their choice or chose “none of the above”. Ford is currently leading because his Republican opponent is underperforming in her base – thanks in part to the Libertarian candidate.

For instance, Ford is winning Democrats 91:1 over Chattah, while Chattah is only getting 76% of the Republican vote, partly because Kennedy is getting 11% (Ford is the favorite of 5% of Republicans). Because nonpartisan Independents are splitting almost equally between the two major party candidates (Ford 37% to Chattah 44%), the GOP nominee can only afford a limited amount of slippage in her base. 

Plus, Chattah’s main campaign platform is to “make crime illegal again” by running against soft-on-crime policies of Sisolak and Ford, but “crime” voters in this poll lean Ford 49:40. This suggests either Chattah’s message isn’t getting through, or that Ford is simply more trusted after 4 years on the job. However, both candidates have bright spots in this poll.
For Chattah, the race tightens to a 43:42 [Ford] lead over Chattah among the poll’s “excellent” voters. 

For Ford, he is leading his female opponent in Clark County 48:38, the identical margin he beat GOP rival W. Duncan by 4 years ago. This makes Ford the only candidate of the three races tested in this poll who is not underperforming in Clark County. Plus, at 44.4% on the topline, it’s worth noting that Ford is technically the top vote getter of all 3 Democrats when compared with Sisolak (at 43.4%) and Cortez Masto (42.5%).

Click here to see the latest odds.

 

2024 Presidential Republican Caucus

If the Republican Caucus elections were being held today to nominate a Republican candidate for President, and the choices were Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Mike Pompeo, Larry Hogan, for whom would you caucus [for]?

 

 

2024 Presidential General Election

If the general election for President were being held today and the choices were Joe Biden, the Democrat candidate, and Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, for whom would you vote?

If the general election for President were being held today and the choices were Gavin Newsom, the Democrat candidate, and Ron DeSantis, the Republican candidate, for whom would you vote?

 

 

Biden Approval Rating

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President?

 

 

Demographics

Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat, a non-partisan Independent or with some other political party?

What was your age on your last birthday?

What is your highest level of education?

What is your main racial or ethnic background?

Gender

Full topline and questionnaire and crosstabs are available upon request by contacting chana22@unlv.nevada.edu.

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