Kentucky Derby Contender Profile: Citizen Bull

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Kentucky Derby Contender Profile

Citizen Bull: Baffert’s Former Juvenile Star Eyes Kentucky Derby Redemption

Horse Racing Betting enthusiasts looking for value in the 2025 Kentucky Derby may want to keep a close eye on Citizen Bull. Once a top contender following a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory, he now enters Churchill Downs with questions surrounding his current form and distance capabilities. 

Despite his recent dip, Citizen Bull remains a compelling choice in Kentucky Derby betting discussions due to his pedigree and early success. His current Kentucky Derby odds of +2000 reflect both the promise and uncertainty tied to his resume.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert and ridden by veteran jockey Martin Garcia, Citizen Bull has compiled an impressive 4-0-1 record from six starts, earning $1,451,000.

His campaign began with a flashy maiden win last summer and peaked with a dominant front-running score in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. But a disappointing fourth-place effort in the Santa Anita Derby has bettors wondering if the Into Mischief colt can bounce back in the most important race of his career.

Strong Pedigree, Proven Team

Citizen Bull is bred for success. His sire, Into Mischief, has already produced two Kentucky Derby winners—Authentic in 2020 and Mandaloun in 2021 (following a disqualification). Into Mischief is also the sire of fellow 2025 Kentucky Derby entrants Tappan Street and Sovereignty. On the dam side, Citizen Bull is out of No Joke, an unraced daughter of Distorted Humor, best known for siring 2003 Derby and Preakness champion Funny Cide.

Trainer Bob Baffert is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby glory. He owns six official Kentucky Derby victories, earned with standouts like Authentic, Justify, American Pharoah, War Emblem, Real Quiet, and Silver Charm. Although Medina Spirit initially won by a seventh, his win was later disqualified due to a failed drug test. Jockey Martin Garcia, who has three prior Derby mounts, is still seeking his first win, with his best finish being third aboard Dortmund in 2015.

Career Path and Setbacks

Citizen Bull kicked off his racing career in impressive fashion, capturing his debut at Del Mar in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint. He followed that effort with a third-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity, then rattled off a three-race win streak that vaulted him into the conversation as one of the early Kentucky Derby favorites. 

He followed his Futurity run by stringing together wins in three key races: the American Pharoah Stakes, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. His speed figures steadily improved, peaking at 107 in the Lewis Stakes, where he convincingly defeated stablemates Rodriguez and Madaket Road.

However, his momentum came to a halt in the Santa Anita Derby, where he faded to fourth and finished 10 lengths behind Journalism. That effort has sparked questions about whether he can sustain his speed over the Derby’s demanding distance while facing top-tier rivals.

Kentucky Derby Betting Outlook

With 71.25 points, Citizen Bull sits 11th on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard heading into the Run for the Roses. His early career brilliance is undeniable, but his latest effort casts doubt on his chances at Churchill Downs. At +2000 in the latest futures market, he’s priced as a longshot, but one with the potential to surprise if allowed to control the pace early.

For up-to-date odds, expert picks, and all your Kentucky Derby betting picks, visit our racebook today.