Kentucky Derby Contender Profile: Rodríguez

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Kentucky Derby Contender Profile

Rodriguez: Baffert-Trained Wood Memorial Winner Ready for Derby Spotlight

Horse Racing Betting fans looking for value in the 2025 Kentucky Derby will find plenty of intrigue in Rodriguez, a rising colt trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. 

Although his current Kentucky Derby odds position him as a longshot at +1400 in the Futures market, his recent win in the Wood Memorial has made him an increasingly interesting option for Kentucky Derby betting.

Proven Connections and Derby Pedigree

Rodriguez is the son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, a colt known for his gate-to-wire speed and stamina, capped off by a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. On the dam side, Rodriguez is out of Cayala, who showed speed in her brief career but never won beyond six furlongs. Authentic’s long-distance success should help offset any concerns about stamina in his offspring.

In terms of experience, Rodriguez brings one of the most decorated jockey-trainer duos in the race. Mike Smith holds the record for the most Kentucky Derby mounts in history and has guided longshots like Giacomo (2005) and champions like Justify (2018) to Derby wins. 

Bob Baffert is aiming for his seventh official Kentucky Derby victory, which would match the all-time record held by the legendary Ben A. Jones. Though Baffert’s 2021 win with Medina Spirit was later disqualified, his resume includes victories with American Pharoah and Justify, both of whom went on to win the Triple Crown.

Rodriguez’s Road to the Derby

With a record of 2-2-1 in five starts and career earnings of $522,800, Rodriguez has quietly built a strong résumé. After breaking his maiden going a mile at Santa Anita, he came back to run second behind stablemate Citizen Bull in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

He was then third in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) behind Journalism and Barnes, both of whom are expected to be prominent in this year’s Derby.

Rodriguez delivered his breakout performance in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. In that race, he went gate-to-wire for a commanding 3 ½-length victory over Grande. With Mike Smith aboard for the first time, the colt displayed tactical speed and the ability to sustain his pace against a competitive field.

Kentucky Derby Betting Outlook

Rodriguez ranks fourth in Kentucky Derby qualifying points with 121.5, placing him right behind Journalism, Sandman, and Burnham Square. Despite this strong position, his odds remain relatively long compared to the top favorites. That might be a mistake, considering his recent form and the elite connections behind him.

His pressing style gives him versatility to adapt to the Derby pace scenario, and his speed figures show he belongs among the top-tier contenders. The question remains whether he can translate his Wood Memorial performance to a 20-horse field at Churchill Downs.

Rodriguez may not be the most talked-about contender in the field, but with a red-hot trainer, a Hall of Fame jockey, and a pedigree built for distance, he has the tools to surprise. For more insights, Kentucky Derby betting picks, and live horse racing betting, visit our racebook today.