NBA Playoffs Odds GAME 4 CELTICS VS. PACERS

NBA
May 27, 2024

NBA Playoffs Odds GAME 4 CELTICS VS. PACERS 

 

In the storied history of the NBA, no team has ever rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win a best-of-seven playoff series. The Boston Celtics, holding a commanding 3-0 lead over the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, aim to avoid becoming a footnote in this statistic and close out the series in Game 4.

 

SPREAD: Celtics -7 (-110), Pacers +7 (-110)

MONEYLINE: Celtics -280, Pacers +235

TOTAL: Celtics O 222.5 (-110), Pacers U 222.5 (-110)

 

THE HALIBURTON VARIABLE

A significant storyline heading into Game 4 is the status of Pacers’ guard Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton’s absence in Game 3 forced the Pacers to adapt defensively, leading to more switched screens and requiring the Celtics to find alternative methods to exploit defensive weaknesses. In Game 2, the Celtics showcased an efficient offensive performance, scoring 126 points on 94 possessions, primarily targeting Haliburton’s defensive vulnerabilities through screening actions involving Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Without Haliburton, the Pacers struggled to maintain defensive stability. The Celtics targeted other weak links like Doug McDermott and Ben Sheppard and even made Myles Turner work harder, with Al Horford setting a playoff-high 23 ball screens. If Haliburton returns for Game 4, it’s unlikely he’ll be at full strength, making him an easier target for Boston’s relentless offensive strategies, important for the NBA Playoffs odds.

 

THE MIDRANGE CONUNDRUM

Interestingly, the Pacers have defied modern NBA trends by relying heavily on midrange shots. While midrange attempts accounted for just 11% of total field goals this season, the Pacers have upped this to 15% during the playoffs, leading all remaining teams. Despite the decline in midrange shooting across the league, the Pacers have found success here, shooting over 50% from midrange in the playoffs.

This midrange proficiency has kept the Pacers competitive, but their reliance on these shots may not be sustainable. In Game 3, despite shooting a respectable 7-for-15 from midrange, they fell short in critical moments, such as Andrew Nembhard’s missed 13-foot pullup that could have shifted the game’s momentum. To extend the series, Indiana will need to summon more of this midrange magic, for bettors at the underdog betting odds.

 

SMALL BALL STRUGGLES

The Celtics’ small-ball lineups have been problematic. The injury to Kristaps Porzingis has forced Al Horford into the starting lineup, which has been effective, but the backup center spot remains a concern. Luke Kornet’s injury led to the use of smaller lineups with Tatum or Oshae Brissett at center, which have not fared well defensively. The data is stark: in the 21 minutes without a traditional big on the floor, the Celtics have a net rating of -17.6.

Xavier Tillman has stepped up in Kornet’s absence, providing crucial minutes as a backup center. His presence in Game 3 was significant, and the Celtics may need to rely on him more to maintain defensive integrity and avoid the pitfalls of small-ball lineups.

 

KEY NUMBERS AND TRENDS FOR BETTORS

The Pacers average 400 passes per 24 minutes, compared to the Celtics’ 276, emphasizing Indiana’s ball movement. Boston has allowed only 19 corner threes in 13 playoff games. Despite Boston’s +51 from beyond the arc, the Pacers outscored them by three points from the field. Turnovers: Pacers 16.4, Celtics 11.6.

 

THE PATH TO VICTORY

For the Celtics, the path to completing the sweep involves continuing to exploit defensive mismatches, maintaining offensive efficiency, and ensuring that their big men stay effective. On the other hand, the Pacers must lean on their midrange shooting while tightening up defensively, especially if Haliburton plays at less than 100%.

As the Celtics aim to close out the series and advance to their second NBA Finals in three seasons, all eyes will be on how both teams adjust and respond to the pressures of this pivotal game, but based on the analysis, it seems like the Celtics have a solid advantage and are well-positioned to win and close out the series in Game 4, something to take into consideration to place a bet in this game.

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