NFL Picks: Week 5 Texans vs. Falcons

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In Week 5 of NFL action, the Houston Texans, led by the emerging star Nico Collins, prepare to face off against the Atlanta Falcons at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. It is scheduled for Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. Here´s a preview of this divisional matchup along with a pick and prediction.

BUSR NFL LINES

SPREAD:  Texans +2 (-110), Falcons -2 (-110)

MONEYLINE: Texans +104, Falcons -127

TOTAL:  Texans O 41.5 (-110), Falcons U 41.5 (-110)

GREATER EFFORT TO RECOVER

The Atlanta Falcons come into this game after a tough 23-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on October 1. In that contest, quarterback Desmond Ridder displayed a mixed performance, amassing 191 passing yards on 19-of-31 attempts with a completion rate of 61.3%. He tossed one touchdown but also faced adversity with two interceptions and, on the ground, they found some success with Bijan Robinson, who carried the ball 14 times for an impressive 105 yards, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Robinson was also involved in the passing game, contributing five receptions for 32 yards. One of Ridder’s favorite targets was tight end Jonnu Smith, who hauled in six receptions for 95 yards, showcasing his big-play potential in the NFL regular season. With this backdrop, the game at the door doesn’t look good.

WITH THE STABLE IN FULL

On the other side, the Houston Texans are riding high after a dominant 30-6 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Quarterback C.J. Stroud had a stellar outing, completing 16 of his 30 pass attempts for 306 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions: his ability to stretch the field and connect with his receivers was instrumental in the team’s success. In the rushing department, Dameon Pierce showcased his workhorse mentality with 24 carries for 81 yards, averaging 3.4 yards per attempt. He also contributed in the passing game, hauling in one reception for 27 yards. However, the true standout in this matchup was Nico Collins, who caught seven passes for a whopping 168 yards and scored two crucial touchdowns. Collins was targeted nine times, showcasing his chemistry with Stroud and his big-play ability. This scenario is the preview of an announced triumph.

BETTING LANDSCAPE

It’s quite evident that both the Falcons and the Texans have had their ups and downs in terms of covering the spread and hitting the over/under this season.

The Atlanta Falcons have had one win against the spread in their four games this year. When favored by 1 point or more, they’ve covered the spread once in two opportunities. In terms of the over/under, Falcons games have surpassed the set total points line in just one of their four outings this season, accounting for a 25% success rate.

On the other hand, the Houston Texans have covered the spread twice this year. When entering games as underdogs by 1 point or more, they’ve managed to cover in three of those instances, showing their competitiveness in challenging NFL regular season matchups. Regarding the over/under, Texans games have exceeded the total points line in two of their four contests, resulting in a 50% success rate.

As we delve deeper into this matchup, the emergence of Nico Collins as a go-to target for C.J. Stroud is a significant storyline. Collins’s ability to stretch the field and create separation from defenders has made him a key asset in the Texans’ offensive arsenal. The chemistry between Stroud and Collins could be a game-changer in this contest.

For the Atlanta Falcons, they will need to bounce back from their recent loss and find a way to capitalize on their offensive potential. Bijan Robinson’s explosiveness as a dual-threat back and the reliability of Jonnu Smith in the passing game are vital elements for the Falcons to exploit.