Sunday Night Football Odds Week 1

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NFL Futures: Sunday Night Football Odds for Week 1

It’s time for the first Sunday Night Football of the year! Let’s analyze each game’s NFL Futures and give a betting recommendation:

Dolphins vs Jaguars

The Miami Dolphins offense thrived last season by building early leads and relying on a solid ground game to control the second half. However, this approach may not work well in the upcoming season due to the departures of their two best run-blocking offensive linemen, Connor Williams and Robert Hunt, who left for the Seahawks and Panthers, respectively. 

Without their key blockers, the Dolphins may find it challenging to rely solely on their running game to close out games, even if they build a lead early on.

Facing the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Dolphins will likely turn to their passing game. Jacksonville’s pass defense struggled last year, ranking among the worst in the league. Despite some offseason improvements, it’s unlikely the Jaguars can keep up with Miami’s star receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. 

These two dynamic playmakers should have little trouble exploiting Jacksonville’s secondary, making Miami’s air attack the focal point of their offensive strategy.

The Dolphins’ defense is expected to take a hit on the other side of the ball. Fundamental edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are out due to injuries, and Miami lost several other defensive players in the offseason. 

This weakened defense allows Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to exploit Miami’s pass rush. While Jacksonville’s offensive line isn’t stellar, the Dolphins’ diminished pressure upfront will likely give Lawrence enough time to find his targets and make key plays.

Another factor to consider is the Miami temperature, which tends to wear down opponents in the second half. With temperatures expected to be 88°F and 72% humidity, Miami’s built-in weather advantage could come into play, as the Jaguars may struggle to maintain their stamina late in the game. 

Miami’s sideline is shaded, while Jacksonville will be exposed to the sun, which has historically led to opposing teams fading in the second half.

Given the circumstances, Miami’s offensive firepower and Jacksonville’s defensive weaknesses suggest that the Dolphins should cover the spread, especially with the home-field heat advantage working in their favor.

Recommendation: Dolphins to cover -3.5.

Steelers vs Falcons

The Pittsburgh Steelers made a surprising move by signing Russell Wilson despite his poor performance in Denver last year. Wilson struggled so much that he was benched for Jarrett Stidham, and the Steelers’ decision to bring him in raises questions about their offensive strategy. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is a significant concern, with a few young additions who are unlikely to be effective immediately.

This could be problematic against the Falcons’ defense, which has improved significantly. Atlanta addressed its pass-rush concerns by trading for Matthew Judon, who, along with Justin Simmons, could turn the Falcons’ defense into a top-10 unit. 

Atlanta’s defense will likely stifle Pittsburgh’s offense, which lacks weapons beyond George Pickens. A.J. Terrell should be able to handle Pickens, leaving Wilson with few reliable targets.

On offense, Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins enters the season with a solid offensive line protecting him. Even though T.J. Watt will make some big plays, Cousins should have enough time to find Drake London, who has a favorable matchup against a shaky Steelers secondary. While Patrick Queen will help limit Kyle Pitts’ impact, the Steelers’ defense doesn’t have enough to fully contain Atlanta’s versatile attack.

While the Falcons were initially one of the teams projected to be overhyped entering the season, their offseason acquisitions, particularly on defense, make them a legitimate contender. Atlanta has the edge against a Steelers team with a declining Wilson and a questionable offensive line.

Recommendation: Atlanta Falcons to cover -3.5.

Giants vs Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings’ hopes of starting J.J. McCarthy at quarterback were dashed due to an injury, leaving Sam Darnold to take the helm. Fortunately for Darnold, the Giants’ defense has a vulnerable secondary, which gives Minnesota’s talented receivers, especially Justin Jefferson, an opportunity to shine. Even with Adoree Jackson in the mix, he’s unlikely to contain Jefferson effectively.

However, Minnesota’s offensive line has issues, with guard Dalton Risner sidelined. This could open the door for Dexter Lawrence to wreak havoc in the middle of the line, both in pass protection and against the run. While the Giants’ defense has some weaknesses, their front seven, particularly their pass rush, can create problems for Minnesota’s offense.

Daniel Jones is returning from a torn ACL on the New York Giants‘ side, and there are questions about his mobility. While the Vikings lost edge talent in the offseason, their pass rush won’t be as formidable, giving Jones a chance to capitalize with new weapon Malik Nabers against a Vikings secondary that isn’t up to par.

The Giants have been dismissed mainly after Jones’ preseason struggles, but it’s easy to forget they were a playoff team just two years ago. The public is backing the Vikings, making them a road favorite, but this could be a mistake, given Darnold’s shaky reputation; the Giants, though underdogs, present value in this matchup.

Recommendation: Giants to cover +1.5.

Panthers vs Saints

Despite their significant offseason improvements, many have undervalued the Carolina Panthers heading into this season. Their offensive line, a major weakness last year, has been fortified with the additions of Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. This line provides better protection for quarterback Bryce Young and opens up running lanes for Chuba Hubbard. This will be crucial against the Saints, which were ranked eighth against the run last year.

Carolina also bolstered its receiving corps, giving Young more separation and playmaking options downfield. With the guidance of quarterback guru Dave Canales, who helped revive the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, Young is poised for success in his rookie season.

On the Saints’ side, losing Ryan Ramczyk is a massive blow to their offensive line, and Tallies Fuaga’s inexperience will likely show in his first start. Alvin Kamara may struggle to find running room against Carolina’s improved defense, and Derek Carr will be forced into check-downs with limited time in the pocket. Saints receiver Chris Olave faces a tough matchup against Jaycee Horn, further limiting New Orleans’ offensive upside.

Carolina’s offseason improvements make them a much better team than their low rankings suggest. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints’ depleted offensive line and questionable defense make them a risky favorite. Carolina should easily cover the spread in what appears to be a mispriced game.

Recommendation: Panthers to cover +4.

Bengals vs Patriots

The Cincinnati Bengals enter the season with a diminished receiving corps, as Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have left. This leaves Joe Burrow relying more on tight ends and his legs to move the chains. Fortunately for Burrow, the Patriots’ pass rush, which was formidable last season, will be far weaker this year with the departure of Matthew Judon and the absence of top interior lineman Christian Barmore.

On the other hand, the New England Patriots have severe offensive line issues. In the preseason, they couldn’t protect against second-string defenders and committed numerous penalties. Without Bill Belichick coaching the team, Jerod Mayo would have had his hands while trying to fix these problems.

Offensively, the Patriots’ receiving corps isn’t good enough to exploit Cincinnati’s secondary weaknesses. New England’s offense will struggle to move the ball effectively with a depleted offensive line and an unproven receiving corps.

Cincinnati’s defense will dominate the line of scrimmage, and Burrow should have no problem navigating through the game even without Ja’Marr Chase. While the Bengals have had slow starts in past seasons, New England’s rookie coach and woeful offensive line make this an apparent mismatch in favor of Cincinnati.

Recommendation: Bengals to cover -8.

Cardinals vs Bills

The Arizona Cardinals head into this season as one of the most underrated teams, led by a healthy Kyler Murray and a solid offensive line. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride give Murray dynamic weapons, allowing Arizona to push the tempo against a Buffalo Bills defense that has seen significant changes.

Matt Milano’s injury and the departure of both starting safeties from last year leave Buffalo vulnerable in the middle of the field. Arizona should have little trouble moving the ball through the air, with James Conner providing additional support on the ground.

Buffalo, meanwhile, has a depleted receiving corps after losing Diggs and Davis. Curtis Samuel is their primary target, but he’s coming off an injury, and it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be. The Bills’ passing game won’t be enough to overcome Arizona’s improved defense, and they may rely more on Josh Allen’s scrambles than planned.

The Cardinals have a talented offense and a solid defense capable of slowing down Buffalo’s attack. With Buffalo playing Miami just four days later, the Bills may not fully focus on this game, which plays in Arizona’s favor.

Recommendation: Cardinals to cover +6.5.

Texans vs Colts

The Houston Texans‘ offense is one to watch this year, especially with C.J. Stroud coming off an impressive rookie season. His new receiving targets include Stefon Diggs and the returning Tank Dell. This duo, alongside Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz, provides Stroud with plenty of options against a Colts defense that’s strong in the trenches but weak at cornerback. The Colts will rely on their formidable defensive line, featuring Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner, to limit the Texans’ running game.

Conversely, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is healthy and ready to lead a revamped offense. Richardson’s dual-threat abilities make him a challenge to contain, especially with Jonathan Taylor running behind an elite offensive line. Last year, Richardson gashed Houston’s defense on the ground, and if he stays healthy, the Texans could struggle to contain him.

The Texans should have the edge due to Stroud’s ability to exploit the Colts’ secondary. With a spread of -3, Houston offers value given their improved offense and a Colts defense with vulnerabilities in pass coverage.

Recommendation: Houston to cover -3.

Raiders vs Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers’ offense could face challenges with quarterback Justin Herbert dealing with a lingering plantar fascia injury. If Herbert plays, he may not be fully effective, and backup Easton Stick doesn’t inspire confidence. The Raiders’ defense, which ranked seventh in defensive EPA last year, could take advantage, especially with their pass-rushing duo of Maxx Crosby and offseason addition Christian Wilkins.

Las Vegas Raiders will look for stability on offense with Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew as quarterback. Whoever starts will benefit from a talented receiving corps, including Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. While the Chargers’ defense has star power in Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, Las Vegas’ offensive line, mainly left tackle Kolton Miller, has proven capable of neutralizing their pass rush.

With Herbert’s health in question and the Raiders’ strong defensive front, taking Las Vegas at +3 provides a solid option, especially if Herbert is limited.

Recommendation: Raiders to cover +3

Commanders vs Buccaneers

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels will lead the Washington Commanders’ offense. It will face a Buccaneers defense that excels against mobile quarterbacks, thanks to its fast linebackers like Lavonte David. This matchup could be challenging for Daniels, as Tampa Bay’s defensive unit tends to bottle up the running game, making it hard for Brian Robinson Jr. to get going. Washington must lean on Daniels’ ability to beat the Bucs through the air.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense benefits from facing a Washington secondary weakened by the departure of Kendall Fuller. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should be able to exploit Washington’s cornerbacks. Washington’s improved linebacker corps, featuring Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu, could help stifle Tampa Bay’s run game, but the Bucs’ passing attack poses a severe threat.

While Washington has promise, Tampa Bay’s experience and home-field advantage give them the upper hand. The Buccaneer’s -3.5 is the better play here, especially with Washington’s rookie QB making his debut.

Recommendation: Bucs to cover -3.5.

Broncos vs Seahawks

The Denver Broncos will rely on rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who had a great preseason but will face a tough test against Seattle’s stout secondary. Beyond Courtland Sutton, Denver’s receiving options are limited, and Nix will be under pressure to perform against a Seahawks team that was one of the best against the pass last year.

The Seattle Seahawks will also look to establish its running game with Kenneth Walker, benefiting from a solid offensive line led by Connor Williams. Geno Smith, fresh off a career revival, will have a deep receiving corps to work with. While Denver’s defense features Patrick Surtain II, the rest of the Broncos’ secondary is shaky.

With its balanced attack and superior roster, Seattle looks like the better option at -6, especially considering Denver’s inexperience at quarterback.

Recommendation:  Seahawks to cover -6

Cowboys vs Browns 

The Dallas Cowboys enter the season opener with concerns about their offensive line after losing two key players in the offseason. This makes them vulnerable against Cleveland’s elite defense, which ranked No. 1 last season. 

Myles Garrett and company are likely to put significant pressure on Dak Prescott, who historically struggles when his protection is compromised. Additionally, Dallas’ run game won’t pose much of a threat, as Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle don’t provide the explosiveness needed against Cleveland’s formidable run defense.

On offense, the Cleveland Browns will look to exploit Dallas’ weak run defense, with Jerome Ford stepping in for Nick Chubb. Deshaun Watson, surrounded by a solid offensive line and an improved receiving corps, has a favorable matchup against a Cowboys secondary that is dealing with injuries.

Given Dallas’ offensive line issues and Cleveland’s ability to dominate both sides of the ball, the Browns should cover the -2.5 spread.

Recommendation: Browns to cover -2.5

Rams vs Lions 

The Detroit Lions’ offense, led by Jared Goff, is set to thrive against a Rams defense weakened by Aaron Donald’s retirement. Without Donald, Los Angeles lacks the pass-rushing threat needed to disrupt Goff, who is protected by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta should have productive games, as the Rams’ secondary won’t keep up.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams’ offense will struggle to establish the run against a Lions defense that was among the league’s best last year and has only improved. With Kyren Williams facing tough sledding, the Rams must rely on Matthew Stafford to find Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Still, Stafford’s task will be complicated by the absence of suspended left tackle Alaric Jackson.

With the Rams’ injury concerns and the Lions’ offensive firepower, Detroit is the safer bet at -3.5. Look for the Lions to cover.

Recommendation: Lions to cover -4.5.