Presidential Elections Odds: Trump Gains Ground

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Presidential Elections Odds: Trump Gains Ground in the Sun Belt: New Polls Reveal a Tight Race

According to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls, former president and current Republican candidate Donald Trump has taken the lead over Kamala Harris, the current vice president and Democratic candidate, in three key Sun Belt states. The competition remains very close, which could spark interest among bettors in the presidential election odds.

Advantages in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina

In Arizona, Trump leads with 50% compared to Harris’ 45%, representing a 5-point advantage. In Georgia, the difference is 4 points in Trump’s favor. However, both leads are within the margins of sampling error. In North Carolina, the race is very tight, with Trump at 49% and Harris at 47%.

These results mark a shift from the August polls, which showed Harris a slight lead. Despite this, Harris continues to perform better than Joe Biden did in the previous election, where Trump led Biden by 8 and 9 points in Georgia and Arizona, respectively.

Impact on Other Races

Despite Trump’s slight momentum, it does not seem to have benefited Republicans in other races. In the Arizona Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 6 points. In North Carolina, Democrat Josh Stein surpasses Republican Mark Robinson with 47% to 37%.

The polls were conducted between September 17 and 21, surveying 713 voters in Arizona, 682 in Georgia, and 682 in North Carolina. The margins of error were plus or minus 4.4 points in Arizona, 4.6 in Georgia, and 4.2 in North Carolina.

Harris Maintains Advantages in Other Polls

In a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, Harris has a 4-point lead over Trump (52%-48%). However, her lead shrinks to just 51%-49% in the seven states likely to decide the winner. In an NBC poll, Harris leads with 49%-44%, marking a significant improvement since Trump led Biden in July.

Overall, the polls reflect a very competitive landscape. According to a New York Times/Siena poll, Harris and Trump are tied at 47%. Additionally, in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted after the debate, Harris has a 52%-46% lead among likely voters.

With only October left to finalize campaigns and prepare for the general election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, dynamics could change rapidly for the presidential elections odds. Will Trump maintain his momentum, or will there be surprises along the way? Betting is open!