MLB Lines: Roki Sasaki Future

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Roki Sasaki, Coveted Japanese Ace, Set for MLB Posting

Roki Sasaki, one of Japan’s top pitching talents and currently ranked third on The Athletic’s free-agent giant board, is on the brink of his long-anticipated jump to Major League Baseball. With MLB Lines closely following his every move, Sasaki’s posting by the Chiba Lotte Marines has officially made him available to MLB teams, opening up a highly competitive sweepstakes for his services.

Due to his age, Sasaki will enter MLB’s system as an international amateur, meaning his salary and signing bonus will be capped. Each MLB team has a restricted international signing pool, ranging from $5.1 million for lower-end teams to $7.6 million for the higher end in 2025. 

This arrangement limits Sasaki’s earnings for the time being and Chiba Lotte’s, which will only receive a 20 percent posting fee. Sasaki’s situation mirrors that of Shohei Ohtani’s entry to MLB, contrasting with last winter’s high-profile Japanese signing, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who bypassed these restrictions and secured a $325 million contract with the Dodgers. 

A high-ranking MLB executive commented on Sasaki’s immense talent, saying, “He’s not the finished product that Yamamoto is, but there’s not many people in the world who are more talented.”

Sasaki’s Rapid Rise and Potential MLB Impact

Sasaki has been a sensation in Japan since high school. He is known for his electric fastball, clocked at triple-digit speeds, and his impressive secondary pitches, including a slider and splitter. He was a standout in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, where his fastball hit 100 mph, catching the attention of MLB scouts. 

While he experienced a slight drop in velocity and performance this past season, analysts suggest Sasaki’s skill set should transfer well to the major leagues. Highlighting the 23-year-old’s elite potential. Some within the league even believe Sasaki would be a top-five pick if he were in the amateur draft.

Sasaki’s posting, expected to close within MLB’s 45-day signing window, brings a unique twist. It is still unclear whether he will enter the 2024 international signing class, which ends on December 15, or the 2025 period beginning January 15. Teams may need to adjust their budgets or move commitments to make room for Sasaki, who could have an impact similar to Ohtani’s arrival. While the timing of his signing remains determined, Sasaki is expected to make his MLB debut in 2025.

Had the Chiba Lotte Marines waited until Sasaki was 25, he would have been classified as a “foreign professional,” exempting him from the international bonus cap and granting him higher earning potential. This delayed approach would have matched Yamamoto’s path, allowing both player and team to earn substantially more. However, Sasaki’s eagerness to compete at the highest level influenced Chiba Lotte’s decision to post him now.

Top MLB Contenders and Sasaki’s Next Steps

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who recently secured Ohtani and Yamamoto, have shown strong interest in Sasaki, positioning themselves as frontrunners in the upcoming bidding. 

The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs are also contenders, closely following Sasaki’s progress and scouting extensively in the Pacific Rim. The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres have long histories of aggressive international recruiting, which could also make them serious bidders.

Japan’s NPB rules require players to serve nine years before reaching international free agency, creating a lengthy wait for Japanese stars to join MLB freely. Due to this restriction, top Japanese talent often opts for the posting system to enter MLB sooner. 

Sasaki’s signing process aligns with this trend, and he now follows a line of Japanese players whose skills and achievements have led to MLB success.

Some MLB executives consider Sasaki’s durability a question mark, given the physical demands of the U.S. schedule. Nevertheless, his fastball and pitch repertoire make him one of the most intriguing talents to join the MLB free-agent pool.