MLB Lines: NLDS Game 5 Picks

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MLB Lines: Padres vs Dodgers Game 5

The San Diego Padres take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in a deathmatch game of the NLDS. 

The Dodgers avoided elimination with an 8-0 victory in Game 4 and forced this elimination game. San Diego’s Yu Darvish will pitch in Game 5, while the Dodgers will counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jack Flaherty.

BUSR’s MLB Lines

Yu Darvish Dominates for San Diego

Yu Darvish, a key figure for the Padres, will start in Game 5. He was impressive in his Game 2 outing, holding the Dodgers to just one run across seven innings, securing the win for San Diego. Darvish posted a 3.31 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 81.2 innings throughout the regular season. 

He has been robust against the Dodgers, allowing just four runs (three earned) in 15.2 innings this year. Darvish has a stellar career record against Los Angeles, with a 2.27 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 91.1 innings pitched. His postseason experience is also notable, with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in his playoff career, making him a reliable choice for the Padres in this must-win game.

San Diego’s offense struggled in Game 4, managing only six hits and failing to score. Their lineup has been inconsistent, particularly with runners in scoring position, going 6 for 32 in the series. 

Jurickson Profar, a key player during the regular season, has struggled with a .547 OPS and only one RBI in the postseason. Luis Arraez has also been quiet, collecting just six hits in the playoffs and going 2 for 13 in the last two games. However, Fernando Tatis Jr. has been a bright spot, hitting three home runs and driving in five runs during the series. He has also succeeded against Yamamoto, going 3 for 3 with a 2.3 OPS in his career.

The Padres’ pitching staff has been solid throughout the season. Their 3.89 ERA places them 12th overall. They have allowed an average of 4.69 runs per game, ranking eighth in MLB.

Dodgers Look to Yamamoto 

Manager Dave Roberts confirmed earlier today that Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start Game 5. The Japanese star struggled in Game 1 against the Padres, allowing five runs on five hits in just three innings. The rookie had a solid regular season with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 90 innings but has had difficulty against San Diego, giving up 13 runs in nine innings this year. 

At Dodger Stadium, Yamamoto posted a 3.88 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, but his recent struggles raise questions about his readiness for Game 5.

Jack Flaherty will be ready, too. The Dodgers will hope for a bounce-back performance. In his Game 2 outing, Flaherty allowed four runs on five hits in 5.1 innings, taking the loss. 

Flaherty has enjoyed a strong season despite his struggles, recording a 3.17 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 162 innings. He has succeeded against the Padres, with a 2.75 ERA in 39.1 career innings. However, his playoff performance has been inconsistent, with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.

The Dodgers rebounded in Game 4 with an 8-0 win, thanks to timely hitting and dominant pitching. Mookie Betts has been a key contributor, with two home runs and three RBIs in his last two games. 

Shohei Ohtani added an RBI in Game 4 and now has four RBIs in the series. Catcher Will Smith, who had been in a slump, broke through with a home run in Game 4. The Dodgers’ offense, which averaged 5.20 runs per game during the regular season (second-best in MLB), will need to continue its production to stay alive in the series.

The Dodgers’ pitching staff has posted a 3.90 ERA this season, ranking 13th in MLB. While they allowed 21 runs in the series’ first three games, the Dodgers bounced back with a shutout in Game 4.

Prediction

Despite their Game 4 loss, the San Diego Padres are in a strong position heading into Game 5. Yu Darvish has been excellent against the Dodgers this season, and his postseason experience gives the Padres an edge on the mound.

While the Dodgers have shown resilience, neither Yamamoto nor Flaherty has consistently shut down San Diego’s lineup. Darvish’s ability to keep the Dodgers’ offense in check and the Padres’ explosive potential, with players like Tatis Jr., make San Diego the favorite in this matchup.

For those following MLB lines, betting on the Padres at +119 offers good value, as Darvish’s track record against the Dodgers and his postseason form give San Diego a strong chance of clinching the series.

Prediction: San Diego Padres Moneyline +120