MLB Lines: NLCS Game 3 Picks

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MLB Lines: NLCS Game 3

The NLCS shifts to the East Coast for Game 3 as the Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64) take on the New York Mets (89-73), tied at 1-1.  After a dominant 9-0 Dodgers win in Game 1, the Mets responded with a 7-3 victory in Game 2, taking back home-field advantage. The MLB Lines currently list the Dodgers as slight favorites at -115, with the first pitch scheduled for 8:08 EST at Citi Field in Queens. 

The pitching matchup features Walker Buehler (5.38 ERA) for the Dodgers against Luis Severino (3.91 ERA) for the Mets.

BUSR MLB Lines

Los Angeles Searches for Pitching

The Dodgers’ high-powered offense, led by Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, has been the focal point all season. However, a significant storyline entering Game 3 is the state of the Dodgers’ pitching staff. Three of their top starters—Gavin Stone, Tyler Glasnow, and James Paxton—are on the injured list, leaving Los Angeles with limited options during this critical playoff series.

In Game 2, the Dodgers fell behind 6-0 by the second inning, as their bullpen faltered early. Despite some late runs from Max Muncy and Tommy Edman, the Dodgers couldn’t recover. Their star hitters, including Ohtani, Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, and Freddie Freeman, went hitless in Game 2. 

Ohtani, who finished the regular season with 54 home runs and 130 RBIs, remains a crucial piece of the Dodgers’ offense, and manager Dave Roberts is committed to keeping him in the leadoff spot.

Walker Buehler gets the start for Los Angeles in Game 3. The 30-year-old right-hander struggled during the regular season, posting a 1-6 record with a 5.38 ERA over 16 starts. 

Buehler gave up six earned runs in five innings in his only postseason start against the Padres. He did not face the Mets during the regular season, and his performance will be crucial if the Dodgers hope to regain control of the series.

Mets Start Fast in Game 2

The Mets flipped the script in Game 2 by scoring six runs in the first two innings, taking advantage of the Dodgers’ bullpen. Francisco Lindor set the tone with a leadoff home run in the first at-bat, snapping the Dodgers’ 33-inning scoreless streak. 

Mark Vientos put the game out of reach early with a grand slam in the second inning, his third home run of the postseason. Starling Marte added three hits, including an RBI double in the eighth.

The Mets will turn to Luis Severino in Game 3. The 30-year-old right-hander had a solid regular season, finishing with an 11-7 record and a 3.91 ERA across 31 starts. Severino has made two postseason starts this year, giving up three earned runs each. His ability to limit damage and pitch effectively will be critical for the Mets as they build on their momentum from Game 2.

Prediction

Pitching had defined this series, with both teams winning when their starter delivered a strong performance. The Dodgers won Game 1 behind Jack Flaherty’s dominant outing, while the Mets took Game 2 thanks to Sean Manaea’s solid start. In Game 3, the Mets have the edge with Severino, who had a much stronger regular season than Buehler.

Buehler’s struggles during the season, particularly in his postseason start against the Padres, suggest the Mets will have opportunities to score early and often. With Severino’s postseason experience and the Mets’ offense heating up, New York is positioned to take control of the series.

Pick: Mets -102