2022 Florida
Gubernatorial Poll

Ron DeSantis vs Charlie Crist

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FLORIDA GOVERNOR RON DESANTIS MAINTAINS EDGE IN RE-ELECTION EFFORTS

 

TALLAHASSEE, FL – The BUSR/Susquehanna Polling and Research survey of Florida registered voters finds Governor Ron DeSantis leading Congressman and former Governor Charlie Crist 46% – 43% in a prospective 2022 gubernatorial general election matchup. DeSantis leads Florida Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried by a 50% – 40% margin.

This poll also found Senator Marco Rubio leading Congresswoman Val Demings by a 50% – 39% margin in a prospective 2022 Senate general election matchup.

52% of Florida registered voters approve of DeSantis’ performance as Governor while 43% disapprove of his performance. In the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial primary, Crist held a 38% – 27% advantage over Fried.

This poll of 700 Florida registered voters was conducted by telephone with live agents from August 4, 2021 to August 10, 2021.

The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7 percentage points. BUSR paid for the costs of this poll and commissioned the live-caller survey from Susquehanna Polling and Research.

245 registered Democrats were surveyed for the portion of the poll that asked for preferences in the Democratic Party gubernatorial primary.

This poll also tested potential matchups in the 2024 Republican presidential primary in Florida and prospective 2024 general election matchups in Florida between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump and between Biden and DeSantis. These results will be released on August 23, 2021.

 

DeSantis Approval

A majority of registered voters from every area of Florida, except the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach/Ft. Pierce regions, approve of DeSantis’ job performance. 56% of white voters, 49% of Cubans, and 42% of non-Cuban Hispanics approve of DeSantis as well. However, DeSantis is viewed by Republicans, Democrats, and independents somewhat differently than expected.

 

  Republican Democrat Independent/Other
Strongly Approve/Somewhat Approve 67% 37% 48%
Strongly Disapprove/Somewhat Disapprove 28% 57% 47%

 

Jim Lee, President of Susquehanna Polling and Research, believes that the biggest takeaway from DeSantis’ ratings is that, “[his] popularity continues to ‘overperform’ expectations. This poll shows DeSantis with a 52:43 positive to negative ratio on approval. This isn’t great but in the context of what’s been happening in the state in recent weeks with the uptick in COVID cases, it’s certainly impressive. And it’s clearly good enough to get reelected in a swing state like Florida if it continues to stay above fifty percent.”

 

2022 Gubernatorial General Election

DeSantis is locked in a tight race with Crist in a prospective gubernatorial general election matchup. DeSantis’ three-point lead over Crist is within the margin-of-error. DeSantis leads Crist by a 49% – 40% margin among non-Cuban Hispanics and by a 58% – 32% margin among seniors. Crist is within striking distance of DeSantis because of his support among younger voters and independents. Crist leads DeSantis by a 55% – 31% margin among voters under 45 years of age and by a 44% – 37% among voters unaffiliated with either Republicans or Democrats.

 

  Republican Democrat Independent/Other
DeSantis 87% 6% 37%
Crist 6% 84% 44%

 

DeSantis has more breathing room against Fried in a prospective gubernatorial general election matchup as he currently leads her by ten points, a lead that is outside the margin-of-error.

In contrast to his matchup with Crist, DeSantis holds a 20-point advantage among independents against Fried.

 

  Republican Democrat Independent/Other
DeSantis 87% 5% 54%
Fried 6% 82% 34%

 

2022 Senate General Election

Rubio appears like a heavy favourite to be reelected to the Senate. Rubio’s eleven-point lead over Demings comes from a 60% – 32% advantage among seniors and a 54% – 38% lead among non-Cuban Hispanics. The one positive for Demings is that she keeps the race competitive with Rubio among independents.

 

  Republican Democrat Independent/Other
Rubio 91% 9% 42%
Demings 2% 81% 41%

 

Jim Lee explained that “Rubio is viewed as a hard worker and is a likeable politician, and good polling for him suggests he’s been smart about how to both keep his base secure (e.g., his no vote on the infrastructure bill) while at the same time appealing to the state’s more independent-minded voters with his common-sense style of governing on other issues.” Lee also noted that Demings’ support among independents shows that she can potentially compete with Rubio due to her background as a former cop. “As this race develops, the key will be how successfully Demings is defined by the Rubio camp and to what extent she is painted as a far left-leaning candidate (mainly due to her record in Congress) in a conservative-leaning state despite her law enforcement credentials.”

 

2022 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Crist holds an eleven-point advantage over Fried but 30% of registered Democrats are undecided as to who they want to face DeSantis in the general election. Crist leads Fried by a 46%-26% margin among conservative Democrats, a 38%-27% margin among moderate Democrats, and a 48%-12% margin among senior Democrats. Fried is effectively tied with Crist among Democrats under the age of 45, liberal and progressive Democrats, non-Cuban Hispanic Democrats, and African American Democrats.

Alex Chan conducted BUSR’s previous polling of elections in Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nebraska’s Second Congressional District. Chan viewed the poll as “providing something for every candidate to like. DeSantis has a strong approval rating and leads his two possible general election opponents. Rubio has a large lead. Crist holds DeSantis to 46% despite DeSantis’ 52% approval rating. Demings effectively tied Rubio among independents. Fried is within the vicinity of Crist in their primary matchup despite not being as well-known as the former Governor.”

Full toplines and crosstabs, including additional information concerning the poll’s demographics and methodology, are available at the following links:

Full Toplines

Full Crosstabs

Questions about the BUSR/Susquehanna 2022 Florida general election poll should be sent to James Lee james@susquehannapolling.com or Alex Chan chana22@unlv.nevada.edu.

 

2022 Midterm Election Odds

2022 Senate General Election Odds
Republicans -350
Democrats +225

2022 Senate General Election Odds
Rubio -500
Demings +300

2022 Gubernatorial General Election Odds
DeSantis -138
Crist +100

2022 Gubernatorial General Election Odds
DeSantis -400
Fried +350