Horse Racing Odds: 2025 Appalachian Stakes

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Horse Racing Odds and Analysis

Appalachian Stakes Draws Top 3-Year-Old Fillies for Keeneland Turf Showdown

While fans and bettors focus on Kentucky Derby Prep Races leading up to the Run for the Roses, Tuesday’s $500,000 Appalachian Stakes (G2T) at Keeneland brings its share of star power. 

Though not part of the Kentucky Derby betting circuit, these races shape the form of promising 3-year-old fillies on the turf. With Kentucky Derby odds shifting weekly, sharp handicappers often take clues from key undercard events like the Appalachian.

Nitrogen and Vixen Draw Inside, Aim to Stay Perfect at Three

The one-mile turf contest, postponed from April 5 due to heavy rain, brings together a stacked lineup of 10 fillies—six of whom enter off victories. Nitrogen and Vixen are leading the charge, trained by Mark Casse, and drawn side-by-side from the two inside gates.

Nitrogen, the morning-line favorite at 2-1, began her career with a win at Woodbine, followed by a third in the Natalma Stakes (G1T) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T). She opened her 2025 campaign with back-to-back stakes wins, most recently in the Florida Oaks (G3T), where she edged out rivals in a gutsy performance under Jose Ortiz.

Stablemate Vixen, 3-1 on the morning line, also enters off consecutive wins. The Vekoma filly captured the Sweetest Chant and Herecomesthebride Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Though she narrowly held off challengers last time, her early speed and strong finishes make her a consistent threat. Irad Ortiz Jr. will be aboard again.

Depth Runs Deep in the Field

Lush Lips, trained by Brendan Walsh, nearly made it three straight before just missing in the Florida Oaks behind Nitrogen. Her tactical speed and past success over Gulfstream’s firm turf position her well, though the softer going expected Tuesday may present a new challenge.

Brad Cox sends out Fionn, winner of her last three starts, including the Allen Black Cat LaCombe Memorial at Fair Grounds. She’s 8-1 on the line and will look to extend her win streak from post 3 under Luan Machado.

Totally Justified, who finished eighth in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, will try to rebound. Second in the Jessamine Stakes (G2T) here last fall, she adds blinkers for her 2025 debut with Luis Saez in the saddle.

Also entered is Foxtastic, coming off a 10 ½-length win in a dead heat at Turfway Park. Her rival that day, Bourbon Memory, returned to win again, giving extra credibility to Foxtastic’s considerable number.

Longshots Could Surprise

Good Temper and Table Flirt enter off wins, though against lesser company. They’ll need career-best efforts to contend here. Fast Market (30-1) and Liam in the Dust (15-1) round out the field. Liam in the Dust tries turf for the first time after failing to move forward in dirt stakes.

Post time for Race 6 is set for 3:40 p.m. local time. With top trainers, proven turf form, and multiple Breeders’ Cup alumni returning, the Appalachian offers tremendous value for bettors.

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