Kentucky Derby Prep Races: 2025 San Simeon Stakes

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2025 San Simeon Stakes Predictions: Can Mucho Del Oro Win Again?

Santa Anita Park will host the Grade 3, $100,000 San Simeon Stakes this Saturday, featuring a competitive field of eight older horses sprinting about 6 ½ furlongs on the unique hillside turf course. 

The race marks an essential step for contenders aiming to establish themselves in the turf sprint division as they prepare for the bigger stakes races later in the season.

While the San Simeon is not one of the Kentucky Derby Prep Races, bettors will find plenty of action in this sprint event. Mucho Del Oro, who won this race last year, returns to defend his title. The Doug O’Neill trainee showed his affinity for the hillside course when he led gate-to-wire in the 2024 edition, holding off challengers to secure the victory. 

After a layoff, he returned in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint on Jan. 25, finishing sixth but beaten just 1 ¾ lengths in a tight finish. Now back at his home track, he looks to continue his dominance on this layout, with Juan Hernandez retaining the mount.

With significant races on the horizon, the San Simeon provides valuable insight for those monitoring Kentucky Derby odds and other graded stakes races on turf. While the focus of Kentucky Derby betting remains on 3-year-olds, the outcome of this sprint could impact future betting opportunities for top-tier sprinters as they progress through the season.

Contenders Looking to Upset the Defending Champion

Among Mucho Del Oro’s key challengers is Sorrento Sky, who enters off a classified allowance victory on Feb. 16 at Santa Anita. The 4-year-old colt, trained by Phil D’Amato, has been improving steadily, finishing second in the Stormy Liberal Stakes before his last-out win. Antonio Fresu will ride Sorrento Sky and brings a solid turf sprint resume, making him a legitimate contender.

Another serious threat is Air Force Red, who wheels back just one week after running in the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile. The Leonard Powell trainee is a proven performer on Santa Anita’s downhill course, winning the Grade 2 Joe Hernandez Stakes over the same layout. 

While he didn’t fire in the Kilroe Mile, he is a dangerous speed horse in this return to his preferred distance. As Air Force Red looks to regain his best form, Jockey Armando Ayuso will be in the irons.

Anarchist Tries Turf Again

A wildcard in the race is Anarchist, who finished second in last year’s San Simeon, his only career turf start. The 6-year-old son of Distorted Humor has primarily raced on dirt, but his previous effort in this event suggests he could be a factor if he takes to the surface again.

He returned from a five-month layoff in the Grade 3 Palos Verdes last time out, but failed to fire, finishing last in a short field. Now back sprinting on turf, he will be ridden by Ramon Vazquez and aims to replicate last year’s performance.

Betting Analysis

The field for the San Simeon includes Charge For Gold, who Kyle Frey will ride at 120 pounds; Gaslight Dancer with Edwin Maldonado at 120 pounds; Sorrento Sky, set to be piloted by Antonio Fresu carrying 120 pounds; Air Force Red, with Armando Ayuso aboard at 124 pounds; St Anthony, who gets Umberto Rispoli at 122 pounds; Anarchist, paired with Ramon Vazquez at 124 pounds; Lovesick Blues, with Geovanni Franco carrying 120 pounds; and defending champion Mucho Del Oro, who retains Juan Hernandez and will have 124 pounds.

Mucho Del Oro has the home-course advantage, and his proven success on this unique track makes him the horse to beat. Air Force Red could be a major player if he bounces back from his Kilroe Mile effort, and Sorrento Sky brings strong current form. Anarchist remains an intriguing upset possibility if his lone turf effort indicated his ability.

Be sure to check out our racebook for the latest odds and insights.