Big 12 Championship Possible Scenarios

Share News

NCAAF News:

BYU, Colorado, and the Path to Chaos

With two weeks remaining in the college football regular season, the race for the Big 12 Championship Game is heating up. Nine teams remain mathematically alive, but only BYU and Colorado control their own destinies. 

For bettors tracking NCAAF Odds and NCAAF Lines, this is a pivotal moment to understand the stakes as the postseason picture comes into focus.

BYU’s Road to the Big 12 Championship

BYU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) enters the final stretch needing two wins to secure a spot in the title game. They face a critical matchup against Arizona State this weekend before hosting Houston in the regular-season finale. A victory over the Sun Devils, combined with a Utah win over Iowa State, would lock BYU into the championship game.

Even if BYU loses to Arizona State, they remain alive but would require help from losses by Colorado, Arizona State, or Iowa State. BYU’s narrow defeat to Kansas last week dropped them in both the Big 12 standings and the CFP rankings, but they remain the conference’s highest-ranked team and a favorite to make the playoff if they win out.

Colorado’s Playoff Push

Colorado (8-2, 6-1 Big 12) shares the conference lead and can clinch a championship berth this weekend with a win over Kansas, provided BYU and Utah also win. Like BYU, Colorado has a straightforward path: win their final two games against Kansas and Oklahoma State. However, a loss to Kansas could throw their chances into turmoil, forcing them to rely on favorable results elsewhere.

Ranked No. 16 in the CFP rankings, Colorado has an outside shot at a playoff spot if they win the Big 12 title. Their consistency and ability to perform in high-pressure games make them a formidable contender.

Arizona State and Iowa State: Dark Horses

Arizona State (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) can almost control its destiny, starting with a win over BYU this weekend. However, the Sun Devils face a tough road. Even if they win their remaining games against BYU and Arizona, tiebreaker scenarios could still leave them out of the title game, depending on results involving Colorado and Iowa State.

Iowa State (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) must win out against Utah and Kansas State to have any chance. They also need at least one loss each by BYU, Colorado, and Arizona State. The Cyclones’ chances hinge on a perfect finish and significant help from other teams in the standings.

Chaos Scenarios: The Three-Loss Group

Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, and West Virginia all sit at 4-3 in conference play. While their paths are convoluted, they remain mathematically alive. Each team must win out and hope for complete collapses by BYU, Colorado, Arizona State, and Iowa State. Among these teams, Kansas State has the best chance, but even they face slim odds.

A chaotic scenario could lead to an eight-way tie at 6-3 in conference play, setting up a potential championship game featuring two teams with at least three losses. While improbable, such outcomes are not unprecedented in the Big 12.

CFP Implications

BYU’s No. 14 ranking in the latest CFP standings leaves them outside the top four seeds, where first-round byes are awarded. Boise State, ranked No. 12, is currently projected to secure the final bye as the Mountain West champion. BYU’s placement behind SMU, despite beating them head-to-head, highlights the committee’s emphasis on recent performance and overall strength of schedule.

If BYU, Colorado, Arizona State, or Iowa State wins the Big 12 Championship, they could leapfrog Boise State and secure a bye. However, if the Big 12 champion has three or more losses, the conference risks being locked out of the playoffs entirely, with the AAC champion (either Army or Tulane) taking the final automatic bid.