Presidential Election Odds: The Vice Presidency Race

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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ODDS: WALZ AND VANCE, THE DUO CHANGING THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Tim Walz and JD Vance have burst out of national obscurity as they strive to present their proposals to the country. The Minnesota governor has had a smoother start as Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate compared to Ohio Senator JD Vance, who has faced more challenges due to his association with former President Donald Trump.

According to a recent AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey, about one-third of U.S. adults (36%) have a favorable opinion of Walz, who will address his party at the Democratic National Convention on Wednesday. In contrast, only about one-quarter (27%) have a favorable opinion of Vance. Additionally, a significantly higher percentage of adults have an unfavorable view of Vance (44%) compared to Walz (25%). These percentages are always essential to consider when determining Presidential Election odds.

WALZ WITH A POSITIVE START

Walz’s start has been notably positive within the Democratic Party, with around 60% of Democrats expressing a favorable opinion of him, including 40% who have a “very favorable” opinion. Although this is the first measurement of Walz’s favorability in an AP-NORC survey, other previous surveys indicated he was virtually unknown nationally before being selected as running mate.

Among Democrats, many key groups still do not know Walz well. About 40% of women and young adults under 45 do not have enough information to form an opinion about him. Also, about half of Black adults and around 40% of Hispanics do not have a formed opinion. Despite this, Walz has successfully gained the support of women, young people, union households, and urban residents during his 2022 gubernatorial campaign, data that certainly impacts the Presidential election odds.

VANCE’S RISE AMONG REPUBLICANS

On the other hand, JD Vance’s favorability has significantly increased among Republicans since his selection as Trump’s running mate. About 60% of Republicans favor Vance, a notable rise from the mid-July survey before his announcement. In that previous survey, only 30% had a favorable opinion of him, while 60% of Republicans did not know enough about Vance to have a formed opinion.

Although his popularity has grown, about 20% of Republicans still have an unfavorable opinion of Vance, and about a quarter say they do not know him well. Adults over 45 are somewhat more likely than younger ones to have a favorable opinion of Vance, as his support is based on his track record of backing family-related policies, such as anti-abortion measures and educational options. This implies that as the campaigns progress, the Presidential Election odds will continue to evolve.