Kentucky Derby Betting

Kentucky Derby Betting: Odds, Picks and More

As The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports draws nearer, anticipation for the Kentucky Derby builds with each passing day. The race is set for May 4, 2024, at the iconic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, and we at BUSR are raising the stakes to commemorate the 150th edition.

Sign up now to enjoy our exclusive offer: a 20% Cash Bonus on your first deposit, up to $1,000, plus a Free Bet for the Kentucky Derby. Explore a wide range of Kentucky Derby betting options and earn up to 10% in rebates on your wagers.

Kentucky Derby Race Information

●       Date: May 4, 2024.

●       Location: The race takes place at Churchill Downs, located at 700 Central Avenue, Louisville, Kentucky, 40208, USA.

●       Distance: 11⁄4 miles (10 furlongs; 2,012 meters)

●       Horse Types: Three-year-old thoroughbreds.

●       Surface: Dirt track.

●       Qualification: Entry into the Kentucky Derby is determined by a global, tiered point system — known as the ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ — from designated races, each time rewarding the top five finishers. The top 20 with the highest points secure their positions, while the ‘Japan Road’ and ‘European Road’ segments specifically provide dedicated entries for horses based in Japan and Europe, respectively.

●       Prize Purse: The Kentucky Derby 2024 will feature a record $5 million prize purse, allocating $3.1M for first place, $1M for second, $500K for third, $250K for fourth, and $150K for fifth.

●       Tickets: One can opt for everything from general admission to diverse dining options and VIP experiences, with full details accessible on the official website. Ticket purchases can be made through Ticketmaster.

●       Attendance Information: Attendance can exceed 150,000 spectators, including infield attendees.

●       Previous Winners: Out of 115 races since 1908, the post-time favorite has won 40 times. Notable victors include Justify (2018), Nyquist (2016), American Pharoah (2015), California Chrome (2014), and Orb (2013). Fourteen horses went on to claim the Triple Crown, among them Affirmed (1978), American Pharoah (2015), and Justify (2018).

●       Notable Records: Donerail, the 1913 Derby winner, set the record for longest odds at 91-1, closely followed by Rich Strike’s 80-1 upset in 2022. Secretariat boasts the fastest Derby time of 1:59.40 set in 1973. The largest victory margin stands at 8 lengths, achieved by Assault (1946), Whirlaway (1941), and Old Rosebud (1914).

●       Jockey Records: 107 jockeys have won the Kentucky Derby, with 27 securing multiple victories. Isaac Murphy, Jimmy Winkfield, Ron Turcotte, Eddie Delahoussaye, Calvin Borel, and Victor Espinoza achieved back-to-back wins in their respective years. Calvin Borel stands out for winning thrice within four years (2007, 2009, 2010).

●       Trainer Records: 116 trainers have won the Kentucky Derby, with 19 achieving this feat multiple times. Notably, six trainers have won the Derby in consecutive years: Herbert J. Thompson, Ben Jones, Jimmy Jones, Lucien Laurin, D. Wayne Lukas, and Bob Baffert.

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What is the Kentucky Derby?

The Kentucky Derby is a 1.25-mile Grade I stakes thoroughbred horse race annually held on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, United States. It’s celebrated for its rich traditions — mint julep cocktail, the wearing of elaborate hats, and the draping of the winner in a blanket of roses — and marks the first leg of the American Triple Crown, followed by the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes. Millions across the globe place their bets at live tracks and through online sportsbooks, underscoring its significance as one of the most venerable and acclaimed horse races since its inception in 1875.

The Kentucky Derby Post-Position Draw

The Kentucky Derby Post-Position Draw is a critical event that determines the starting positions of the horses at the gate. A traditional drawing method guarantees transparency and fairness; one racing official selects a horse’s name from one set of papers, while another representative draws a gate number from another set, effectively pairing each horse with its starting position. This procedure is conducted in a public setting to ensure that the allocation of post positions is open and above board to dispel any potential concerns of bias or manipulation.

The draw for the 150th Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, April 27, marking a shift from previous traditions where it was conducted the Monday before the race. This adjustment, as outlined by Darren Rogers, Senior Director of Communications and Media Services at Churchill Downs, seeks to benefit bettors by delivering crucial information earlier, thereby encouraging more informed betting and increased engagement.

Where can I Watch the 2024 Kentucky Derby?

If you won’t be joining the crowds at Churchill Downs, the 2024 Kentucky Derby remains accessible and immersive with two distinct home viewing alternatives. NBC will broadcast the entire Derby Day live, accessible whether tuned in via antenna, cable, or satellite. For those who prefer streaming, comprehensive coverage will also be available on platforms like Peacock, YouTube TV, and FuboTV. The excitement begins on May 6 at 2:30 PM ET, offering not just the thrill of the Derby itself but an entire day of races, celebrations, and the electric atmosphere, complete with celebrity sightings and mint juleps aplenty.

Where to Bet on the Kentucky Derby?

BUSR is the best place you can bet on the Kentucky Derby, offering new members a lavish welcome bonus alongside a racebook incentive. Beyond the initial offers, you’ll find plenty of other crypto promotions, cashback rebates, and referral rewards to enhance the race day experience.

Sweetening the pot, BUSR doesn’t make you hold off until May to start your wagers. Kentucky Derby Futures are on offer all year, allowing you to engage with the shifting odds as contenders are added or withdrawn. Once you lock in a future bet, those odds are set in stone and remain active and honored even if prices drop.

What Happens if My Pick is Scratched and Withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby?

If your selected horse for the Kentucky Derby is scratched and withdrawn, the protocols for wagers depend on where and how you placed your bet. Bets made within the Racing section of our site are eligible for a refund, with reimbursements processed once the official results are declared post-race. However, the treatment of exotic wagers may differ, influenced by the specific bet type and its associated outcomes. For bets placed on ‘odds to win’ at fixed odds, the policy is ‘all wagers have action,’ meaning that a scratch results in the wager being settled as a loss.

Kentucky Derby Betting 101 | How to Bet on the Kentucky Derby

Placing Kentucky Derby bets at BUSR is as easy as pie. Simply:

1. 1. Access BUSR and enter your credentials.

   2. Navigate to the horse racing section.

   3. Choose the Kentucky Derby from the list of races.

   4. Check the current odds for each horse.

   5. Select the bet type you wish to place. Available bets can vary depending, ranging from the win, place, and show to more complex wagers like an exacta, trifecta, superfecta, etc.

○       For Straight wagers, enter the amount you wish to risk for Win, Place, or Show.

○       For Exotic wagers, input the bet amount and select your picks in the provided fields.

1. Confirm your selections by clicking on ADD TO BET SLIP.

2. Review your bet slip — displayed on the right-hand side on desktop or in a ‘Shopping cart’ on mobile.

3. Once satisfied with your bet, click on PLACE BET to finalize the wager.

4. You will receive a ticket number confirming your bet has been posted.

Kentucky Derby Expert Picks

Building toward the Run for the Roses, several expert analysts offer their predictions and insights on horse performance, track conditions, and betting odds. These picks provide valuable perspectives on contenders’ strengths and weaknesses and can help bettors see the race from different angles, supporting their choices or suggesting new strategies for wagers they might not have considered.

Who is Jody Demling?

Jody Demling is a highly esteemed figure within the horse racing community, known for his perceptive analysis and forecasts on major international races. His extensive experience writing about, discussing, and placing bets has solidified his reputation as a credible voice in the field.

Demling’s proficiency was particularly evident in events like the Kentucky Derby, where he successfully predicted 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. His expertise in the sport was further demonstrated by accurately identifying the Belmont Stakes winner in four of the previous six years, including a spot-on exacta in 2022.

Jody Demling’s Kentucky Derby 2024 Expert Picks

Jody Demling’s analysis for the 2024 Kentucky Derby suggests a cautious approach toward Fierceness despite the horse being among the favorites. He hints at steering clear of placing high confidence on it for the win, given the colt’s recent track record that includes a less-than-stellar performance in the Holy Bull Stakes and a seventh-place finish in the Champagne Stakes – not the follow-through one might anticipate after the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory. Demlin’s breakdown subtly suggests that although Fierceness has demonstrated brilliance, the complexities of the Kentucky Derby’s competitive landscape may not favor this contender’s chances of success, thus implying a strategy of careful consideration before adding Repole Stable’s horse to your Kentucky Derby betting slip.

Switching tracks, Jody Demling spotlighted Honor Marie as a notable longshot for the Kentucky Derby 2024. Despite being an underdog, its track record at Churchill Downs stands out, boasting two wins and a second-place finish in three starts, including a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. This performance, coupled with improving speed figures, underscores his adaptability and comfort on this historic track. Additionally, the Whit Beckman-trained horse benefits from a distinguished lineage as the progeny of Honor Code, a winner of multiple Grade 1 stakes races.

List of the Different Types of Bets You Can Make: Straight & Exotic Wagers

At BUSR, we provide a broad spectrum of Kentucky Derby betting options, ranging from straightforward straight wagers to the complexities of exotic bets. As the big day draws near, stay alert for emerging opportunities and exclusive promotions designed to enhance your race day strategy. 

Kentucky Derby Betting Odds

Understanding the odds for the Kentucky Derby is a crucial piece of the puzzle for those looking to place informed wagers. The numbers you see on the race card indicate the perceived chances of each horse crossing the finish line first (win), second (place), or third (show). Professional oddsmakers initially set them based on a thorough evaluation of each runner’s pedigree, training performance, past race results, and conditions on race day (such as track surface and weather). However, as bets are placed, the odds begin to shift — the more bets a selection attracts, the lower its odds become, reflecting a stronger belief in its chance of winning. Conversely, a horse with fewer bets will have higher odds, indicating a lower likelihood of success.

Different Price Formats: American, Fractional, Decimal

Odds are typically presented in three main formats: American, Fractional, and Decimal, with the former being the most popular in the USA.

American odds (or moneyline odds) are displayed as either positive or negative numbers. A positive figure indicates how much profit you would make on a $100 bet, while a negative one shows how much you need to bet to make $100 in profit. For example, +150 means you win $150 on a $100 bet, whereas -150 means you need to bet $150 to win $100. 

Fractional odds are most commonly found in the UK and represent the profit you stand to make relative to the stake. They are expressed as a fraction, such as 5/1, meaning if you bet $1 and win, you receive $5 in profit plus your original $1 stake back, totaling $6. For example, if a horse is listed at 5/1 odds in a race, backing it for $20 would yield $100 in profit (5 times the $20 bet) plus the original $20 stake, resulting in a total return of $120. 

Decimal odds, on the other hand, do not separate the profit and the stake but instead represent the total return for each dollar wagered. This format is perhaps the most straightforward: a decimal odd of 6.00 means that for every $1 bet, the total return would be $6.00, which includes both the $1 stake and $5 in profit. 

Can Odds Change Leading to the Kentucky Derby 2024?

Yes, odds can and often do change leading up to the Kentucky Derby 2024. These shifts occur due to a variety of factors, including changes in a horse’s training status, health, performance in lead-up races, post position, and the betting public’s preferences (the more bets placed on Selection A, the shorter its price becomes), among others. As more information becomes available and as money is wagered, bookmakers adjust the odds to reflect the current perception of each horse’s likelihood of winning. 

Finding Value in Kentucky Derby Betting Odds

Beyond picking favorites or long shots at random, here are some tips and strategies to help you identify valuable betting opportunities:

Look for Overlooked Factors: Certain elements, like a horse’s preference for a particular track condition (wet, dry, etc.), a change in jockey, or a new training regimen, might not be fully accounted for in the odds. Identifying these can help you spot a pick that’s undervalued by the market.

Timing Is Key: Odds change as the race approaches, influenced by new information and betting trends. If you have a strong opinion early, you might get better value before the market adjusts. Conversely, waiting might benefit you if public sentiment is heavily skewed toward one horse, inflating the odds for others.

Weather Impact: While most bettors consider general track conditions, diving deeper into specific weather forecasts, such as wind direction and speed, sudden temperature changes, or humidity levels, might give you an edge. Some horses perform significantly better under specific conditions, and these nuances might not be fully factored into their odds.

Psychological Factors: Investigate the mental and emotional state of the jockeys and trainers. A jockey with a recent streak of wins may have higher confidence. Similarly, a trainer who excels under pressure or in high-stakes races might prepare their horse better for the Derby.

In-race Strategy and Post Position Analysis: Deep dive into the in-race strategies of the contenders and their post positions. Some horses might have a better chance of finding value in their odds based on their racing style (front-runner, closer, etc.) and how it matches up with their post position in the Derby field.

Is Betting at BUSR Fixed Odds or Pari-Mutuel for the Kentucky Derby?

BUSR is a non-pari-mutuel horse betting platform; this means that instead of pooling bets and dividing payouts among winners, as in traditional pari-mutuel betting, we offer users fixed odds. When you place a bet, the prices at the time of your wager are locked in, regardless of how they may change afterward. Straight bets are rewarded at full track odds, while exotic bets are also paid at full track odds up to a maximum fixed-odds amount, as detailed in the Racing FAQ section in the Club House post logging in. 

Kentucky Derby Betting Tips

Here are 6 Kentucky Derby Betting Tips our expert team at BUSR has compiled to guide you towards smarter wagering decisions:

Study Pedigree Charts

Delve into the lineage of each horse to evaluate stamina and speed for the Derby’s mile-and-a-quarter distance. Examine ancestors’ performance in Grade 1 races, paying close attention to those who have excelled at similar tracks and conditions.

Assess Track Conditions

Consider the anticipated weather and its effect on the racetrack’s surface, which can significantly influence a contender’s showing. Competitors with a history of excelling in various conditions offer an advantage when predictions are uncertain, whereas, closer to race day, a more precise weather forecast allows for strategic picks based on specific performance in those anticipated conditions.

Consider Post Draw Outcomes

Review historical data on post position outcomes and integrate this insight once the official entry list is released following the draw on April 27. Evaluate each contender’s characteristics alongside their assigned starting gate; notably, positions 5, 7, 8, and 10 have historically yielded a higher win rate, possibly due to optimal positioning away from the rail and the initial scramble. In contrast, post position 17 has consistently underperformed, potentially due to the wider turn entry and the challenge of overcoming more contenders.

Analyze Jockey-Trainer Synergy

Teamwork makes the dream work. Look for duos that have demonstrated tactical prowess and a shared track record at Churchill Downs. 

Monitor and Keep Track of Odds Movements

Shifts in betting lines can signal where the most informed and strategic wagers are being directed, often reflecting insider knowledge or confidence in a horse’s potential that isn’t immediately apparent to the general public. Significant price changes, especially those occurring close to race time, may hint at last-minute developments such as changes in track conditions, horse health updates, or strategic decisions by trainers and jockeys.

Utilize a Kentucky Derby betting calculator

Don’t leave your potential winnings to guesswork; leverage a Kentucky Derby betting calculator to precisely forecast your returns. Simply enter your chosen bets, stakes, and current odds to instantly see the possible payout.

Kentucky Derby Contenders

The tables below present the leading contenders across the USA, Europe, and Japan vying for a coveted spot in the final 20 of the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

2024 Kentucky Derby Betting | Our Take

The Kentucky Derby has stood as a pillar of sheer entertainment and exhilaration for years. As we approach the highly anticipated event in May, the excitement is palpable: who will take the crown? What surprises lie in store on the track?

Be part of the drama and check the current odds at BUSR to see where your favorites stand. Take advantage of our exclusive offers, and place your bets with confidence!

FAQs

What horse should I bet on for the Derby?

Selecting a horse to bet on for the Derby requires careful consideration of multifaceted factors, including current form, track performance, pedigree, trainer and jockey records, pre-Derby race results, and insights from Kentucky Derby betting pools. 

What is the best way to bet on the Kentucky Derby?

Tough question, indeed. Thorough research on horses, jockeys, and track conditions is paramount; for high-risk, high-reward betting, focus on exacta or trifecta bets, while a conservative approach favors win, place, or show bets for steadier returns.

What would a $100 bet on the Kentucky Derby pay out?

A $100 bet on the Kentucky Derby could pay out variably, depending on the prices. For instance, betting on a horse at +500 would result in a $600 total return, while a horse at +1000 odds would bring back $1,100. These payouts include both the profit and the original $100 bet.

What is the best betting site for the Kentucky Derby?

BUSR is the best sportsbook for betting on the Kentucky Derby, offering competitive prices, exclusive betting options, special promotions for both newcomers and regular players, and valuable race insights.

What is the most profitable way to bet on horse racing?

The most profitable way to bet on horse racing involves a combination of strategies such as handicapping to assess horse and jockey performances, diversifying bet types beyond simple win bets to include exactas, trifectas, and superfectas for higher payouts, and managing bankroll carefully to ensure that bets are proportionate to the perceived value and odds.

How to bet on the Kentucky Derby?

To bet on the Kentucky Derby, start by researching the field, including horse performances, jockey records, and track conditions. Then, log into your BUSR account, explore the options available, leverage the platform’s insights and tools, and place your bets accordingly.

How do you bet on the trifecta box at the Kentucky Derby?

To bet on the trifecta box at the Kentucky Derby 2024, mark the box option on the BUSR racecard, enter your stake in the designated field, select at least three horses you believe will finish in the top three in any order, click on add to bet slip, and proceed with the process to confirm your wager.

Do you need cash to bet at the Kentucky Derby?

If betting at the racetrack, it’s advisable to carry cash; however, a more convenient option is to place bets on BUSR, where you can utilize a variety of payment methods, including Visa, MasterCard, Bitcoin, and Litecoin.